"Rate cuts are not a panacea; the crypto world fears 'expectation gaps' even more!" The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is about to land, but the market feels like it has taken a 'placebo'—superficially positive, yet hiding a deeper mystery.
Substantive analysis: According to the latest report from The Wall Street Journal, during this rate-cutting cycle, institutional funds have not poured into the crypto market on a large scale; instead, signs of 'risk aversion' have emerged. Historical data supports this: after the Fed's rate cut in 2020, Bitcoin skyrocketed by 120% within three months, but this time, the market has already overdrawn expectations, with the current BTC price down 23% from its peak, forming a classic script of 'buying the expectation and selling the fact'.
Personal opinion: The 'placebo' in the crypto world has never been the policy itself, but the market's consensus on the effectiveness of the policy. If this rate cut is accompanied by signals of economic recession, it may instead trigger a 'liquidity trap'—funds would rather hoard in stablecoins than take risks entering the market. For example, the market capitalization of stablecoins like USDT/USDC has recently grown against the trend, revealing investors' contradictory psychology of 'fearing both missing out and being trapped'.
Case evidence: Before the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade, the market widely expected that staked ETH would be unlocked and sold on a large scale, but actual data shows that only 15% of ETH was withdrawn, which instead pushed ETH prices up against the trend. This indicates that the 'expectation gap' in the crypto world is often more lethal than the policy itself.
Want to know how to seize opportunities in this 'expectation game'? There are no deities in the crypto world, only teachers with a good mindset. If you don't know what an effective breakout is or what cryptocurrencies can yield 10 times the return, follow the lord of the city and come into the village to receive guidance!
