$BTC Evening View:
Talking through the chart: This trend is difficult to illustrate, you can only dig in from the outside. If Bitcoin aims for a 1:1 upward target, it is around 96180. When it reaches this position, pay attention to price behavior to see if it’s a real breakout or a false breakout. If it breaks out genuinely, you don't need to worry. However, if it repeatedly fails to break through, you can open a short position, but don’t make it too large. The extreme point of the failed attempts is your stop-loss point. Can you understand?
If Bitcoin wants to continue rising, it must first break through the price channel at 92725 to maintain the upward trend; otherwise, it won’t be able to rise. It needs to first pull back and break the support at 91510 to continue falling, looking at the lower boundary of the price channel and the support at 89535. In fact, tonight's view is quite similar to noon's perspective because it hasn't exited the consolidation zone.
Once 89535 is lost, what awaits you below is an abyss. If it can’t go up or down, let’s first look at the oscillation between 92725-91510!
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Bitcoin should break through 92820 on the right side with volume to go long, and if it breaks down to 92400 with volume and can't recover, then short on the right side. Regardless of whether you go long or short tonight, try to keep your positions light, light, light.
Important things should be said three times.
Bitcoin's hourly level must stabilize above 92695 to look upward at 93625-94206; it can only take off after breaking 92695.
On the 4-hour level, breaking below 92006 looks downward to 91523-90170. If it breaks 92006, Bitcoin will pull back.
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Continuing to look at the chart: Bitcoin has successfully stabilized above the ema20 and 50-day moving averages on the 4-hour level, and has even faked a breakout above the ema200-day moving average. As long as Bitcoin on the 4-hour level doesn’t fall below the ema20 and 50-day moving averages during the pullback, everything will be fine. If the dot plot tonight indicates a rate cut exceeding 75 basis points in 2026, and if Powell speaks dovishly, there will be an explosion in place; conversely, it will die in place. If Bitcoin can break through and stabilize above the ema200-day moving average, it won’t just be a rebound, but a reversal. The volatility tonight will be significant, so try to close most of your positions before the dot plot and Powell's speech are released in the early morning. If you don't want to close them, you should reduce your positions; otherwise, the fluctuations could catch you off guard. Meeting adjourned.
