Attention ⚠️⚠️⚠️ At 3 AM, the Federal Reserve is about to unveil its interest rate decision, and on-chain whales have already placed their bets.
Under the spotlight of the financial world, at 3 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's last monetary policy decision of 2025 is set to be announced — global markets are holding their breath, and a “thriller” concerning interest rates is about to unfold.
Will there be a 25 basis point cut? Or an aggressive cut of 50 basis points? Or will they unexpectedly hold steady? This is not just a number, but a core variable that influences the nerves of the U.S. stock market, foreign exchange, commodities, and cryptocurrency markets.
Current economic data is complicated and intertwined: inflation remains stubborn, unemployment is low, while political uncertainty increases the difficulty of predictions. The mainstream market expectation is a moderate rate cut of 25 basis points, which would be the third cut of the year, aimed at balancing economic stimulus with controlling inflation.
If there is a 25 basis point cut: the stock market may see a rebound, with tech stocks and growth sectors possibly leading the charge, and the cryptocurrency market may experience heightened liquidity expectations with increased trading activity.
If there is a 50 basis point cut: it may be seen as a “bold” stimulus, and risk assets may soar quickly, but it could also trigger deeper concerns about the economic outlook.
If they hold steady: hawkish signals may lead to a sharp turn in market sentiment, with the stock market possibly experiencing significant corrections in the short term, and high volatility assets such as cryptocurrencies may face selling pressure.
Historical data shows that during the 2024 Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, Bitcoin’s price increased by over 50%, while a hawkish turn previously caused the cryptocurrency market cap to evaporate by hundreds of billions of dollars in a single day.
On-chain whales have already positioned themselves.
Before the announcement, on-chain data has shown some “whale” addresses making large directional bets, which are often viewed as indicators of market sentiment.
Tomorrow could reshape the investment landscape for 2026.
Regardless of the outcome, this FOMC decision will become one of the most influential events of the year. High-risk assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies have implied high volatility expectations, with a surge in platform orders as the bull-bear battle intensifies.
The early morning may be a point of risk explosion or the starting point of a new market trend. Buckle up for this financial rollercoaster — perhaps the script for the next wealth story is silently being written.
