Macro News | 2025-12-10

Tonight at 3:00 AM, the Federal Reserve's decision is expected, with an 85% probability of a 25bp rate cut, but there are 1-2 dissenting votes (rare in 30 years).

Certainties:

The labor market has softened, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% and 7.7 million job vacancies. Powell dares not bet on a hard landing; a cut is necessary.

Uncertainties:

Inflation at 2.5% has not fully returned to 2%, coupled with the shadow of Trump's tariffs, the dot plot is likely to revise the 2026 interest rate midpoint upward.

Tonight, focus on three things:

Will they cut 25bp (if not, it will explode directly)?

Will the dot plot raise the 2026 midpoint (if raised, US Treasury yields will surge, and US stocks will cry)?

Is Powell firm or not (saying 'data dependent' means he won't back down)?

Other news:

CFTC/OCC officially allows BTC/ETH/USDC as collateral for derivatives, RWA taking off.

China-US chip agreement 'loosens up' but adds inspections + shares profits, costs up 10-15%.

The interest rate spread at 0.62% is at a historical low, any slight disturbance could cause a collapse.

In one sentence position:

30% cash, 70% BTC + ETH. If Powell doesn't back down tonight, I will go all in; if he doesn't back down, I will keep cash overnight.

20 years as an old investor, here is my insight: listen to the Federal Reserve, don’t listen to KOLs.

See you tonight, brother.