70 million pieces #MERL centralized unlocking, can the market hold up this time?

To be honest, I've been closely monitoring MERL's on-chain movements recently, and the more I see, the more I feel that this wave in December is completely beyond what a typical market can summarize.

You may have heard that there are four key dates to focus on this month: 12/12, 12/15, 12/16, and 12/19.

In total, nearly 70 million pieces of MERL will be unfrozen from the OTC agreement and officially enter circulation on these four days. When I saw this number, I was genuinely taken aback—this is not a routine daily release, but a real “centralized release cycle.”

But the key point I want to emphasize is not “how many coins will come out,” but rather—the market's expectations regarding this matter will impact prices more than the actual selling pressure.

Even if not all OTC holders sell, as long as people think “they might sell,” trading sentiment will become tense.

It’s important to note that many early OTC holders had a very low cost basis, with some even at only one-third of the current market price. For these individuals, the current price already represents considerable profit. Once there is a rebound, “taking profits at highs” is the most rational action—if you don't sell, others might sell first, thus layering selling pressure above.

📌 This unlocking is essentially a threefold stress test of psychology, structure, and capital flow.

📌 What truly influences short-term trends is not necessarily who sold, but rather who everyone is afraid might sell.

If you have positions, you might want to keep an eye on:

1. Whether large addresses are moving

2. Whether net inflows to exchanges have increased

3. Whether the chips have started to disperse after the OTC unlocking

These on-chain signals often provide directional clues earlier than candlestick charts.

If you're waiting for an opportunity, the fluctuations during this period are worth observing—during high volatility and high expectation pressure periods like this, one can better see the actions of the main players and the chip structure.

Will this release of 70 million pieces become an opportunity for “bad news to be fully priced in,” or a “catalyst for a downturn”?

In the coming weeks, the answer will naturally reveal itself.

I will continue to monitor on-chain changes, and will update immediately if there are any developments.