Tonight marks another meeting of the monetary policy committee.

The probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points (to 3.50%-3.75%) is as high as 89.9%.

The probability of maintaining the rate (3.75%-4.00%) is only 10.1%.

The rate cut itself has been fully priced in by the market. Announcing a 25bp rate cut tonight will not surprise the market.

What everyone wants to hear is not whether there will be a rate cut tonight.

The key focus is on Powell's tone at the post-meeting press conference (Forward Guidance).

—— Is it suggesting that the "rate cut cycle continues," or "inflation rebounds, pause next year"?

Personally, I lean towards the high probability of a "hawkish cut" tonight.

That is: action gives sugar (25bp rate cut), while words wield a big stick (strong statements).

Script prediction: Powell's "Tai Chi."

Regarding the rate cut: "We have decided to cut rates by 25 basis points to maintain economic expansion." (in line with expectations)

Regarding the future: He will make every effort to avoid committing to further rate cuts in January 2026.

High-frequency vocabulary prediction: That is his old rhetoric——"Data Dependent," "Cautious," "Not on a preset course."