MERL I continue to be bearish at this position: The unlocking wave in December is really unfriendly

$MERL The biggest issue right now is not the story, but the supply. In December, there are a total of 4 key unlocking days (12/12, 12/15, 12/16, 12/19) releasing about 70 million chips, a typical concentrated selling period. Even if these chips do not all crash the market, the 'expected selling pressure' is enough to scare away half of the buying demand—active orders are decreasing, depth is thinning, and even a slight selling pressure can push the market down.

What’s more troublesome is that many OTC cost ranges are lower, and the current price is still in their profit zone. As soon as there is a rebound, some are willing to lock in profits first, which turns the upper area into a 'profit-taking zone' rather than a 'new trend starting point'. What you see is the K-line being pulled up and down, while I see batches of unlocked funds looking for high-level exits.

In the short term, my benchmark expectation for MERL is: the unlocking is not over, the sentiment is not fully killed, and the price is unlikely to have a decent trend reversal.

Personally, I lean towards waiting for it to reach around 0.2 when the unlocking rhythm is ground down, and the chips and sentiment are truly washed out, before discussing any 'new story, new stage'. Until then, this stock is a bearish variety in my view, and rebounds seem more like providing an exit channel for unlocked chips rather than an elevator for the bulls.

#MERL