$BTC Bitcoin’s Breakout to $108,500 Keeps Failing — Here’s Why (And Why It Can Still Succeed)
Bitcoin is trading near $92,500, up 2.8% in 24 hours.
The inverse head and shoulders (iH&S) structure remains intact and still points toward $108,500, but every breakout attempt keeps failing.
Two clear reasons explain the repeated failure — and both can still flip bullish.
1. The Neckline at $93,700 Keeps Rejecting Breakouts
This level is the activation trigger for the iH&S pattern.
BTC has touched or slightly pierced $93,700 multiple times.
But zero daily closes above it → meaning the pattern has not officially activated.
Every rejection pushes traders back into caution mode.
Until BTC closes solidly above $93,700, the market will not treat the structure as confirmed.
2. Whale Support Is Weak
Addresses holding ≥1,000 BTC have declined since Nov 19:
Fell to 1,303 on Dec 3 (monthly low)
Still hovering near that level now
Why this matters:
Whales typically confirm major breakout zones
Declining whale count signals hesitation during rallies
When price rises but whales reduce exposure → momentum fades
(Exactly what happened between Dec 2–3, when BTC hit $93,400 but quickly corrected to $89,300.)
These two factors — technical resistance + weak whale conviction — have blocked the breakout so far.
The Good News: Both Issues Are Fixable
There’s a strong short-squeeze setup building under the surface.
3. Short Squeeze Pressure Is Growing
On Binance:
Short liquidation leverage (30d): $3.66B
Long liquidation leverage (30d): $2.22B
Shorts are ~50% higher, which creates a powder-keg setup:
Even 1–2% upward moves this month triggered mini squeezes
A daily close above $93,700 could unleash forced short covering
Short covering can replace whale demand, at least temporarily
This is why a breakout can still occur even without whale participation.
Breakout Roadmap (If BTC Clears $93,700)
1️⃣ $93,700 → neckline activation
2️⃣ $94,600 → major gateway zone
3️⃣ $105,200 → intermediate target
4️⃣ $108,500 → full measured iH&S target
→ ~15.7% above neckline
If momentum becomes strong enough, whales may join late, adding fuel.
Invalidation Levels (Important for Risk Management)
Pattern stays valid above $83,800
Closing below $80,500 → iH&S invalidation
→ opens door to deeper pullback
→ especially if whales continue reducing exposure
Current Market Summary
What’s blocking the breakout?
🟥 $93,700 resistance
🟥 Whale caution
Why the breakout can still happen?
🟩 Huge short-squeeze potential
🟩 Pattern still intact and bullish
🟩 Momentum can trigger whale FOMO
Want a custom analysis?
I can give you:
✓ A simplified trading plan around these levels
✓ Risk-reward scenarios
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