The interest rate cut drama starts at 3 AM, and Powell's speech at 3:30 sets the tone! Don't think that a rate cut means a celebration; the probability of a correction after the good news has been fully priced in is high, and this adjustment will take at least a week or two. It may not drop immediately after the rate cut, but historical data shows that: one week after a rate cut, the cryptocurrency market is likely to correct by 10%. The bears should hold on tight and wait for their opportunity!
The rise of U.S. stocks related to crypto ≠ the cryptocurrency market rising! The correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq rose to 0.52 in 2025, seemingly in sync but actually hiding the risk of diversion—institutional capital could withdraw from the crypto market at any time and flow back to hot tracks like AI. Last week's divergence where 'stocks rose and crypto fell' is the best warning!
A rate cut is not a guaranteed profit signal; hawkish moves should be taken seriously.
The market is crazy about the Fed's rate cut benefits? Don't panic! Data shows that a 25 basis point rate cut has been fully priced in, and what really sets the trend is the policy guidance. Once a 'hawkish rate cut' is announced—cutting rates while warning of inflation risks, capital will quickly rush into government bonds, and liquidity in the crypto market will be instantly drained; the 1011 incident—19 billion liquidation disaster could happen again at any time!
The year-end trend is not in suspense; two outcomes are locked in early.
Short term (within December): 83,000-95,000 range oscillation, a breakthrough will entice buyers!
Don't let the 94,500 high confuse you! Current liquidity exhaustion combined with year-end capital recovery means Bitcoin cannot hold the 95,000 mark. Chasing highs now is no different from the traders who chased up to 126,000 in October! The divergence in central bank policies is intensifying, and before the Fed's decision is announced, market volatility will only escalate!
Mid to long term (2026): If it doesn't break 130,000, it will fall below 75,000!
The core judgment is unequivocal: if the Fed completes 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, combined with continued inflow of institutional ETFs, Bitcoin will break through the 130,000 mark by mid-next year; if the rate cuts fall short of expectations, 75,000 will be the line of life and death, breaking it will trigger a new round of Bitcoin winter! Remember: this is not the start of a bull market, but a bottom consolidation; patience is a hundred times more important than leverage!
The core of making money in the crypto market is not to chase highs and kill lows, but to accurately predict risks. Last year, we warned of the FTX collapse in advance, and this year we captured the two rounds of crashes in April and October; those who survived are the ones who understand respect.
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