The Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the United States, is expected to announce its monetary policy decision for today, December 10, 2025, at 4 PM (Brasilia time). The market expectation is for a new cut of 0.25 percentage points in the basic interest rate (Fed Funds Rate), bringing it to the range of 3.50% to 3.75% per year.

What to expect today (10/12/2025)

Interest Announcement: The decision will be announced at 4 PM, Brasilia time.

Expectation: The market widely anticipates a third consecutive cut of 0.25 p.p. this year, due to signs of labor market slowdown and inflation still above the target, but with cooling trends.

Press Conference: The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will hold a press conference 30 minutes after the announcement (4:30 PM, Brasilia time). The market will be attentive to Powell's tone to seek clues about the next steps of monetary policy in 2026, especially whether the communication will be more "dovish" (inclined towards cuts) or "hawkish" (tougher on inflation).

Context and Impact in Brazil

The Fed's decisions are crucial for the global economy, including Brazil, due to the relevance of the dollar as a global reserve currency.

Market Impact: Lower interest rates in the US tend to devalue the dollar and attract foreign investor capital to emerging markets, such as Brazil, in search of better returns, which can appreciate the real and boost the Brazilian stock market.

Super Wednesday: The Fed's decision coincides with that of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank of Brazil, which is expected to announce the maintenance of the Selic rate at 15% per year for the fourth consecutive time. The high interest rate differential between the countries increases Brazil's attractiveness to investors.

#finaldeciclode4anos The return 📌