The price of Ethereum has risen by 6.7% in the last twenty-four hours and is trading near $3,320. This move follows a breakout structure confirmed on December 3, which still points to $3,710.
But the conflicting signals now indicate that the rise may take longer.
The breakout structure continues as the upward transition approaches.
The price of Ethereum continues to move within the same reverse breakout pattern that formed in late November. This decision remained in effect after December 3rd as the right shoulder support at $2,710 persisted. The structure only weakens if ETH falls below this level.
A key catalyst now is the bullish crossover forming between the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-period simple moving average. The EMA tracks price with added weight on recent candles.
Typically, a bullish crossover indicates that buyers are gaining strength and momentum may continue in the same direction. This catalyst could push the price of ETH higher, towards the expected target of $3,710.
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But this overlap will only form if sellers do not intervene. An on-chain metric shows why caution remains.
The rise in paper profits creates a window of profit
The unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) of Ethereum measures the 'paper profit' held by all ETH wallets. When NUPL rises, more holders have reason to sell as they gain larger unrealized profits.
The NUPL index in ETH has now risen to 0.296, pushing it into the zone of optimism and anxiety. This is the highest reading since early November.
The last time NUPL reached a similar level — on December 3rd — ETH dropped about 5.2% over two days as profits were taken by holders.
There is a similar setup showing now. Profitability is rising again while ETH is close to resistance. This increases the likelihood that some players may sell before the bullish transition ends. If that happens, the crossover may fail, and momentum could stall even if the breakout structure remains intact. This explains the prolonged waiting period.
Key Ethereum price levels: What opens the way to $3,710 — and what breaks it
If the bullish crossover is completed and NUPL pressure remains limited, Ethereum's price has a clear upward path:
A 12-hour close above $3,390 is the first signal
The next resistance is at $3,570
Surpassing $3,570 opens the full move towards $3,710, which is the target measured at 20% from the breakout point.
If selling grows instead, the structure weakens. ETH remains valid above $2,710, but moving below $2,610 invalidates the setup and signals a deeper pullback.
Currently, ETH is caught between two forces: a bullish crossover that could push towards $3,710, and rising paper profits that may delay movement. The next few sessions will determine which side leads.
