AVAX has been stuck in a massive 2-year Channel Down.
3 weeks ago we printed a fresh Lower Low, but since then price has gone completely sideways – looks like it’s trying to build a proper Support base.
If this level holds and we don’t break lower, the odds of a new bullish leg starting from here are pretty high.
Looking at the previous two bounces inside this bear channel:
→ First leg rallied to ~0.786 Fib
→ Second leg only managed ~0.68 Fib
If the momentum keeps weakening (which it usually does in long bear channels), this time we probably won’t even reach the 0.5 Fib. That puts my max upside target around $20.
Above us, the 1W MA50 (blue) and 1M MA50 (red) are acting as the two big bosses of this entire bear cycle – breaking them looks tough.
So I’m watching the $14–15 zone closely. Hold = possible long with tight stop. Break = more pain incoming.
What do you think – bounce or breakdown? Drop your charts & thoughts below!
