DISCUSSION ON BITCOIN'S 4-YEAR CYCLE
• Group that believes in the 4-year cycle
🔹 Those who believe in the 4-year cycle argue that this model is still valid as BTC has increased by more than 8X from the bottom in 2022 (around 15K USD) and this is the time BTC enters the bear market.
🔹 Altcoins do not increase as strongly as BTC because the number of altcoins is too many and there is no strong narrative like NFT in 2021 or ICO in 2017.
• Group that no longer believes in the 4-year cycle
🔹 Some entities like Grayscale, CZ, and expert Lynn Alden argue that the traditional 4-year cycle may no longer be accurate. Demand from institutions has changed the model. Evidence is that BTC set an ATH before the 2024 halving, something that has never happened, plus BTC is increasingly reacting to macroeconomic factors.
🔹 BTC is currently down 2.5% this year while according to the 4-year cycle, this year was supposed to be a bullish year. BTC also does not have a “blow off top” while most altcoins are still moving sideways or worse compared to 4 years ago.
🔹 Investment firm Bernstein believes that recent price action shows BTC may no longer follow the 4-year cycle. They believe BTC is entering a longer bullish cycle driven by institutional money absorbing selling pressure from retail investors. Even though BTC corrects by 30%, outflows from ETFs remain very low, below 5%, indicating strong long-term demand. Bernstein maintains a long-term price target of about 1 million USD for BTC by 2033.
🔹 Major American bank JPMorgan remains optimistic with a BTC price target of 170K USD in the next 6 to 12 months. They predict the peak cycle will be in 2027, and BTC could reach around 200K USD.$SOL $pippin $OP
