For months, bulls were chanting one number: $200,000 BTC by 2025. Now one of the biggest global banks just pulled the rug on that narrative. Standard Chartered has officially slashed its 2025 Bitcoin target in half — from $200K down to $100K — and delayed the $500K dream until 2030.

Is this realism
 or the first crack in the supercycle story?

In its latest report dated December 9, Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, admitted that recent price behavior forced a full model reset. Bitcoin’s 36% drawdown from its October all-time high to the $80,500 zone in November was still “within historical correction norms,” but the bank openly stated:

> “Our previous short-term targets were wrong — but the long-term destination remains intact.”

đŸ”» Why the Delay? Corporate Bitcoin Buying Is Running Out of Fuel

Kendrick explained that the rally since U.S. spot ETF approvals was driven by two engines:

1. ETF inflows

2. Corporate treasury accumulation (Strategy, miners, and other BTC-heavy firms)

Now, the second engine is stalling.

Standard Chartered believes Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) buying has peaked. Valuation metrics like mNAV (market cap to Bitcoin value) no longer justify aggressive balance-sheet expansion. Strategy’s mNAV recently dipped below 1.0 for the first time since 2023, signaling limited upside for further large-scale accumulation.

Instead of new corporate buying waves, the bank expects mergers and consolidation across smaller BTC-holding firms. Importantly, Kendrick does not expect major selling. Strategy’s average BTC cost is around $74,000, and historically the firm has never sold, even during drawdowns.

From here on, ETF inflows become the only major source of demand, estimated at around 200,000 BTC per quarter — enough to support price, but not to replicate past explosive cycles.

🔄 ETFs Are Replacing the Halving as the Main Price Driver

Standard Chartered also delivered another bold thesis:

The Bitcoin halving is no longer the dominant cycle driver.

ETF flows now dictate short-term price action far more than block rewards. Their data shows:

250K BTC inflows fueled the March 2024 surge

450K BTC drove the early-2025 leg

250K BTC supported the July 2025 rally

But by October 2025’s record high, quarterly buying had already dropped to 160K BTC, and today it sits near 50K BTC, the lowest level since ETFs launched.

Kendrick describes the current pullback as “the storm before the calm,” not a structural market breakdown — but admits Bitcoin is now highly sensitive to ETF flow cycles.

🏩 JPMorgan Agrees: No Crypto Winter Yet

Adding fuel to the debate, JPMorgan analysts also rejected the idea of an incoming crypto winter. Despite BTC dipping toward $81,000 last month, they see:

No structural weakness

No collapse in stablecoin demand

Continued institutional participation

They highlight that Bitcoin closed November down 9% for the first time since May 2023, but still believe the post-election rally around Trump’s 2024 victory temporarily overheated the market. Pullbacks, in their view, are normal resets — not cycle death.

Even on prediction platform Myriad, the probability of a crypto winter before February 2026 has dropped to just 6%.

🧠 Long-Term Outlook: Slower
 But Bigger

Despite cutting near-term targets, Standard Chartered remains extremely bullish long-term. Its Bitcoin–Gold allocation model shows global portfolios are still severely underweighted BTC:

Current implied allocation: 5% BTC / 95% Gold

Optimal allocation (historical volatility): 12% BTC

Using implied volatility: up to 36% BTC

If markets slowly rebalance toward those levels, Bitcoin could still rise up to 7x from current prices, even without corporate buying waves.

Standard Chartered also doubled down on Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against banking risk and U.S. Treasury instability, declaring:

> “The crypto winter belongs to the past.”

✅ Final Take

Yes — the road to $500,000 just got longer.

But according to both Standard Chartered and JPMorgan, the destination itself hasn’t changed.

The hype cycle is cooling. The structural adoption cycle is still accelerating.

👉 If you want real macro + crypto breakdowns without the fake hype, follow my account and drop a comment with your BTC target for 2025 — let’s see who’s right.

#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews #ETF