From now until early tomorrow morning (Asia), when the Fed announces its interest rate decision, the market will enter its most volatile and unpredictable phase. The closer we get to the announcement, the more frequent the liquidity hunts become — especially in crypto, which always reacts earlier and more aggressively than equities.
The market currently sees a very high probability of the Fed cutting rates by 0.25%. However, the interest rate itself is not what ultimately determines the market’s direction. What can flip market sentiment instantly is the tone and attitude of Chairman Jerome Powell during the press conference that follows.
There are two major scenarios:
1. Powell turns hawkish
If the Fed cuts rates, Powell emphasizes:
Inflation remains elevated and cannot be taken lightly
The Fed must balance growth with maintaining pressure on inflation
No further tightening, but not ready for aggressive easing either
A cautious stance, prioritizing systemic risk control
➡️ In this scenario, markets could turn red immediately — just like previous reactions. A rate cut is good news, but a negative tone will shrink liquidity and bring back risk-off sentiment. BTC, ETH, and altcoins typically drop sharply in the first few hours.
2. Powell turns dovish: If Powell signals a more supportive stance:
Willingness to ease liquidity
Emphasis that the economy needs capital support
Inflation is at an acceptable level
Fed may become more flexible, prioritizing economic stability and employment
➡️ This scenario triggers a strongly bullish reaction:
Liquidity flows back quickly
BTC may bounce toward key trend-reversal levels
Altcoins rally aggressively afterward
Most important: Don’t bet on a single scenario
During a high-risk period like this, you should:
Positions aligned with the scenario you believe in the most
Set clear Stop Loss levels for the opposite case
Avoid FOMO, avoid full margin, avoid emotional guessing
Focus on risk management — the key to long-term survival
The market is not a place to always guess correctly — it’s a place where you must always have a plan for when you’re wrong.
A professional investor prepares for every scenario, not reacts only after the market moves.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermInvestment #writewithoutAI
