Tonight's Federal Reserve decision is the annual spectacle! 📢 Don't just focus on a 25 basis point rate cut; what really affects the market is the 'de facto balance sheet expansion'—institutions predict monthly purchases of 45 billion short-term bonds starting in January, liquidity is going to be released ahead of time! But even more explosive than easing is: the U.S. monetary power is undergoing a major reshuffle, and the underlying logic of the crypto market has already changed!
Institutions are crazily bottom-fishing! Saylor and Tom Lee are going against the trend! 🔥
The market is guessing whether MicroStrategy can withstand the decline? Saylor directly slapped the bears in the face with 963 million USD! 🤑 He added 10,624 BTC in one go, a scale that exceeds the total of the past three months, just when mNAV is dangerously close to 1, he went all-in!
The ETH camp is even more aggressive! Tom Lee's BitMine raised a staggering $429 million to buy ETH when the price plummeted and market cap corrected by 60%! It's important to note that BTC's market cap is 5 times that of ETH, so this buying weight is equivalent to Saylor buying $2 billion BTC. No wonder the ETH/BTC ratio has stopped falling and is rebounding; is the altcoin rebound window about to open?
CoinDesk analysts were shocked: MSTR is now financing 1 billion a week, which would have taken four months in 2020! Institutions with cash to keep firing are the strongest price support right now.
ETF outflow of 4 billion? The truth is it's an arbitrage liquidation, not institutional withdrawal! ⚠️
In the past two months, BTC has fallen from 125,000 to 80,000, with 4 billion flowing out of ETFs. Many are panicking: Is the bull market over? That's a huge mistake!
Amberdata has uncovered the core truth: This isn't panic selling; it's a collapse of 'basis trading'! 📉 Previously, funds made profits from 'buying spot + shorting futures', but after October, the annualized basis dropped from 6.6% to 4.4%, spending 93% of the time below the loss line, forcing arbitrage positions to close—selling ETFs + covering futures is purely a technical operation.
Key data speaks: Core institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have been continuously net inflowing! ETF holdings remain stable at a high of 1.43 million BTC. After clearing short-term arbitrage funds, what's left are long-term allocation positions, making the market structure healthier. This wave is a 'market reset', not the end of a bull market!
#美联储重启降息步伐
Trump seizes power from the Federal Reserve! Major reconstruction of the monetary system 💥
The most significant signal is hidden in the macro: the independence of the Federal Reserve can't be maintained! 🇺🇸 The Trump team is reclaiming control of interest rates, liquidity, and the balance sheet from the Federal Reserve back to the Treasury.
Personnel arrangements have already been made: trusted aides are clustering in core positions, even Bessent, who should be the Federal Reserve Chair, remains in the Treasury—now the Treasury is the rule-maker! 📜 The 10-year U.S. Treasury and the 12-month interest rate spread have skyrocketed, and the SOFR rate has plummeted, all pricing in the arrival of 'the era of Treasury dominance'.
In simple terms: In the future, long-term interest rates may be determined by the Treasury, and liquidity will not rely on the central bank's easing. Risk assets will need a new pricing logic! For the crypto market, short-term liquidity improvement can support BTC, but in the long term, we have to wait for the new monetary system to clarify; a 1-2 year accumulation period is unavoidable.
How to view the future market? Opportunities are hidden in chaos! ✨
Now is not the time to look at K-lines; it's the time to look at institutional changes! The old order is loosening, new rules haven't taken shape, price volatility will be greater, but opportunities are also hidden in the chaos.
✅ Loose liquidity supports the bottom, limiting BTC's downside potential.
✅ After ETH leads the surge, Sol and Ethereum-based altcoins could see a rebound of 50% to 1x (historical patterns repeating!).
✅ Institutional funds have not withdrawn; they are patiently waiting for the market to digest the arbitrage positions.
✅ Trump's 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' is still being laid out, and the long-term correlation between the dollar and cryptocurrencies will be stronger.
After tonight's decision, the market may still fluctuate, but don't be swayed by short-term volatility. Institutions are positioning against the trend, and we should focus on changes in underlying logic rather than chasing highs and cutting losses.
Do you think a Christmas rally will come? Will BTC rebound first or will ETH lead the way? Share your thoughts in the comments below! 👇$DOGE
