The showdown with the Federal Reserve, the direction of the breakthrough depends on tonight! Either soar to great heights or return to the starting point!
Currently, $BTC is stuck in the 89,300—93,000 range, completely in line with my judgment last week on the 4-hour MA120-MA200 range. Tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, dot plot, and Powell's speech will directly determine which way the price breaks.
If the rate cut is implemented and the dot plot shows at least 3 rate cuts next year, plus Powell releases dovish signals, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will break through the 93,000 resistance and test the key range of 98,000 upwards. Conversely, if the dot plot shows fewer than 2 rate cuts next year, or Powell's speech is hawkish, the price is very likely to break down through the 89,300 support. Once it effectively falls below and rebounds weakly, we will have to patiently wait for a signal of bottoming out in the next 1-2 weeks.
Whether the bulls can turn the tide depends on three keys: first, whether future interest rate expectations remain loose; second, whether Trump formally nominates Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman (this person is dovish and friendly to the market); third, whether the marginal impact of the December 19 yen interest rate hike will trigger a liquidity chain reaction.
The market is currently in a "mine-clearing stage"; with each mine cleared, the foundation for the bulls becomes more stable. If subsequent declines trigger market panic and bear market rhetoric abounds, it may instead be an opportunity to gradually position for the bulls.
In short, tonight is the turning point for direction; maintain patience before the breakout and go with the trend after the breakout. Once the mines are cleared, the trend will naturally emerge.
The market changes every day; don't get too tight in your mindset. If you always feel like you're a step behind and fear being disturbed by market noise, feel free to chat at 币安聊天室.
