Powell just cut 25 bps to 3.50%. But don’t mistake it for generosity — this was the final drop before the valve tightens.
🔥 THE NUMBERS THEY HOPE YOU IGNORE
Here’s where the real story begins:
📉 Small businesses shed 120,000 jobs in November
🏢 Large corporations added 90,000
➡️ The U.S. economy is splitting in two — one nation, two trajectories.
ADP shows –32,000 jobs, the sharpest fall since April 2020.
Yet simultaneously…
📈 JOLTS shows 7.67 million job openings.
This isn’t a soft labor market.
It’s a bifurcated one:
🔥 INFLATION: THE REAL STORY
📌 Inflation is holding at 3%.
❌ The Fed’s 2% target? That chapter is closing.
The upcoming dot plot is the whisper beneath the noise:
Only 1–2 cuts projected for 2026.
Translation:
High rates are sticking through the next presidency
The age of cheap liquidity is formally buried
⚠️ MEDIA WON’T TOUCH THIS
The recent government shutdown shredded the data pipeline:
📉 No October unemployment rate
📉 November nonfarm payrolls delayed until mid-January
📉 Powell is making his biggest call of the decade without clean data.
👀 2026: THE POWELL CLOCK
Powell’s term ends May 2026.
Kevin Hassett is already in the wings.
Today’s 2:30 PM ET press conference may be Powell’s last true macro pivot before the Fed is reshaped at the top.
🧨 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU
💳 Variable-rate debt → Turning into long-term pain
🏠 Housing → Locked up like peak winter
🏦 Small business borrowing → Tightest conditions in years
💰 Wealth gap → About to widen at historic speed
Markets priced in today’s cut with 87% probability.
But here’s the real shock:
📉 77% probability of no cut in January.
This marks the shift from:
Emergency response → Structural acceptance.
Inflation at 3% isn’t a ceiling anymore — it’s the new floor.
Let that sit with you.
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