宇东
--
Bearish
Although a rate cut is expected, the anticipated bull market may not be coming back
Let's temper expectations a bit. If the rate cut happens tonight as expected, the market might not necessarily rise
It should be starting this month, as the three major U.S. stock indices and gold have been rising continuously since the 'rate cut expectation' news was released, and Bitcoin has also returned to over $90,000. Everything seems to be 'priced in'.
But let's not forget, the market buys expectations and sells facts. Once the rate cut is implemented, funds may start to worry: Is this a signal that the economy can't hold up? Does the Federal Reserve see that inflation can't be controlled? Has the expectation of rate cuts been overdrawn?
This kind of 'good news realization = bad news selling' scenario has happened countless times in history.
The rise in risk assets has already priced in the good news. After the actual rate cut is implemented, there may be a technical adjustment. A more conservative strategy is to reduce positions on the way up and wait for confirmation of the adjustment before buying again. Because what is truly reliable is 'capital inflow + market confidence + macro trends in sync', rather than 'a rate cut announcement on a certain day'.
#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储官员集体发声
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Let's temper expectations a bit. If the rate cut happens tonight as expected, the market might not necessarily rise
It should be starting this month, as the three major U.S. stock indices and gold have been rising continuously since the 'rate cut expectation' news was released, and Bitcoin has also returned to over $90,000. Everything seems to be 'priced in'.
But let's not forget, the market buys expectations and sells facts. Once the rate cut is implemented, funds may start to worry: Is this a signal that the economy can't hold up? Does the Federal Reserve see that inflation can't be controlled? Has the expectation of rate cuts been overdrawn?
This kind of 'good news realization = bad news selling' scenario has happened countless times in history.
The rise in risk assets has already priced in the good news. After the actual rate cut is implemented, there may be a technical adjustment. A more conservative strategy is to reduce positions on the way up and wait for confirmation of the adjustment before buying again. Because what is truly reliable is 'capital inflow + market confidence + macro trends in sync', rather than 'a rate cut announcement on a certain day'.
#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储官员集体发声
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
210
0