⛽ETH fees plummet by 62%! Is it a warning of a pullback or short-term fluctuations? An in-depth analysis of risks and opportunities💥

Ethereum gas fees have dropped sharply by 62%, currently as low as 0.692 Gwei, causing many investors to panic: Is this a signal for ETH to fall? Don't rush, let's clarify the core logic behind the fee drop and then look at the underlying risks and hidden opportunities👇

📉Three core reasons for the fee plunge

1. Layer2 diverts traffic from the main network⚡: Layer2 solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base have accelerated and lowered costs, bringing gas fees nearly to zero, with transaction TPS far exceeding the main network (Base reaching 39 TPS, while the main network only 12 TPS), leading to a significant shift in user transaction scenarios, resulting in a sharp decrease in demand for main network block space, and thus fees naturally decline.

2. Overall decline in transaction demand📊: The crypto market's sluggishness combined with macroeconomic uncertainty has made investors more cautious, leading to a decrease in DApp interactions and asset trading activity, with the main network primarily handling low gas-consuming operations like bridging and staking, which lowers the overall fee level.

3. Technological upgrades reduce costs and increase efficiency🔧: The Dencun upgrade introduces blob technology, optimizing data storage and processing, reducing gas consumption per transaction, and directly lowering the fee threshold from a technical standpoint.

⚠️Potential downside risk points for ETH

Weak main network activity transmits sentiment: The essence of the fee drop is insufficient demand on the main network, which may lead investors to question the vitality of the ETH ecosystem in the short term, compounded by a sluggish market atmosphere, potentially triggering selling pressure and exacerbating price corrections.

• Long-term dilution of value due to Layer2 diversion: If Layer2 continues to seize transaction scenarios, the reliance on the main network ecosystem may decrease, potentially weakening the deflationary destruction motivation for ETH (fewer transactions lead to reduced gas fee destruction), which could impact the long-term value support of the token.

✅Key logic that does not require excessive panic

Technological upgrades lay the groundwork for long-term benefits: The Dencun upgrade and Layer2 development essentially optimize the Ethereum ecosystem's expansion rather than signify ecological decline. The short-term fee drop is a phase of adaptation, beneficial for attracting more users into the market, which in turn supports ecosystem growth.

• The deflationary rhythm has not lost core support: Although the amount of gas destruction has decreased with the drop in fees, the staking amount of ETH remains high, and ecosystem infrastructure continues to improve. The long-term deflationary logic has not been broken, and short-term fee fluctuations do not change the underlying value logic.

📌Summary: ETH's downside risk is controllable, focus on two signals

The short-term fee plunge is more of a phase caused by scenario diversion and market sluggishness. ETH faces slight pullback pressure, but the downside risk is controllable #ETH走势分析