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📈 # Powell's Speech #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $XRP
Analysis of Potential Impact on Cryptocurrency
Scenario One: Hawkish Outcome (Above Expectations)
· Performance: The dot plot shows only 2 rate cuts (or fewer) in 2024, Powell emphasizes "no rush to cut rates".
· Market Reaction: The US Dollar Index (DXY) surges, US stocks are under pressure, and cryptocurrencies are likely to follow US stocks with a short-term decline.
· Logic: The high interest rate environment continues, suppressing risk asset valuations, with expectations of tightening market liquidity.
· Key Levels: Closely monitor BTC's test of key support levels (such as the $60,000-$62,000 range).
Scenario Two: Neutral/As Expected
· Performance: Maintains the forecast of 3 rate cuts in 2024, Powell's wording is balanced, acknowledging inflation progress while emphasizing reliance on data.
· Market Reaction: Volatility may rise first and then fall, with the market continuing the original trend after digestion. BTC may seek direction after minor fluctuations.
· Logic: Uncertainty is eliminated, and market attention returns to ETF fund flows, industry narratives, and other fundamentals.
Scenario Three: Dovish Surprise (Below Expectations)
· Performance: The dot plot maintains or increases the number of rate cuts, Powell expresses optimism about declining inflation.
· Market Reaction: Risk assets rejoice, and US stocks and cryptocurrencies (especially altcoins) may experience a broad rally.
· Logic: Early confirmation of an easing cycle, with a significant increase in market risk appetite and liquidity expectations driving the rise.
Analysis of Potential Impact on Cryptocurrency
Scenario One: Hawkish Outcome (Above Expectations)
· Performance: The dot plot shows only 2 rate cuts (or fewer) in 2024, Powell emphasizes "no rush to cut rates".
· Market Reaction: The US Dollar Index (DXY) surges, US stocks are under pressure, and cryptocurrencies are likely to follow US stocks with a short-term decline.
· Logic: The high interest rate environment continues, suppressing risk asset valuations, with expectations of tightening market liquidity.
· Key Levels: Closely monitor BTC's test of key support levels (such as the $60,000-$62,000 range).
Scenario Two: Neutral/As Expected
· Performance: Maintains the forecast of 3 rate cuts in 2024, Powell's wording is balanced, acknowledging inflation progress while emphasizing reliance on data.
· Market Reaction: Volatility may rise first and then fall, with the market continuing the original trend after digestion. BTC may seek direction after minor fluctuations.
· Logic: Uncertainty is eliminated, and market attention returns to ETF fund flows, industry narratives, and other fundamentals.
Scenario Three: Dovish Surprise (Below Expectations)
· Performance: The dot plot maintains or increases the number of rate cuts, Powell expresses optimism about declining inflation.
· Market Reaction: Risk assets rejoice, and US stocks and cryptocurrencies (especially altcoins) may experience a broad rally.
· Logic: Early confirmation of an easing cycle, with a significant increase in market risk appetite and liquidity expectations driving the rise.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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