Price is oscillating inside a rising channel after a sharp correction, with a key decision area around 92k and major liquidity zones near 112k above and 76k below. The structure favors short‑term range trading inside the channel until a decisive breakout gives a higher‑probability swing move.
Current structure
Daily trend is corrective up within a larger down‑move from above 110k, forming a clean ascending channel with higher highs and higher lows since late November.
Price is currently near the midline/upper half of that channel around 92k, which also aligns with a widely watched resistance band in recent news and order‑flow commentary.
Key levels
Immediate resistance: 92k–96k zone (channel mid to upper boundary plus recently highlighted resistance cluster), where previous bounces have stalled.
Major upside supply: 110k–112k area from which the last impulsive sell‑off started; this is where many longer‑term holders may look to distribute again.
Channel support: rising lower trendline currently around 86k–87k, acting as short‑term demand; a clean daily close below it would confirm weakness.
Higher‑timeframe demand: 74k–76k band highlighted by several analysts as a potential deeper correction/accumulation zone if the channel breaks down.
Bullish path
As long as price respects the rising channel lows and keeps putting in higher lows above roughly 86k, bulls can target:
First: retest of 96k–100k (channel top and psychological level).
Extension: a spike into 110k–112k if momentum returns and macro news turns supportive.
For execution, aggressive traders buy near the lower channel boundary with tight invalidation just below, scaling out into the midline and upper boundary rather than assuming an immediate breakout.
Bearish path
Rejection from 92k–96k followed by a daily close below the channel low would signal that the corrective structure has ended and sellers are regaining control.
Downside targets then open toward:
82k–84k interim support from prior swing lows.
76k major demand zone, which aligns with widely discussed Fibonacci and support confluence.
Short setups are generally higher quality on failed breakouts near the channel top or on retests of broken support, rather than selling blindly in the middle of the range.
How to trade it
Avoid heavy directional bets while price is near the channel mid and the 92k pivot; expectancy is low there compared to edges at channel extremes.
For options, this environment supports short‑dated premium selling (iron condors/strangles) centered around 92k as long as the channel holds, shifting to directional call or put spreads only after a confirmed daily breakout with follow‑through volume.
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