Final Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates of the Year Generates Expectation Amid Internal Divergences
According to BlockBeats, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its last monetary policy decision of the year at 3 AM (UTC+8). The announcement comes during a period with few recent economic data and with members of the Fed themselves presenting distinct positions. Despite the market betting on a rate cut, the central bank may adopt a more ambiguous communication regarding its plans for 2026, possibly signaling a firmer stance.
Currently, investors project two additional cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2026, which would keep the base rate between 3.00% and 3.25%. Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan for the U.S., highlighted that the more aggressive stance of some regional presidents may bring the projection for 2026 closer to the scenario published in September — even with little internal support for new reductions now and with greater caution regarding future cuts.
Feroli also stated that the new projections may “show discomfort with interest rate cuts,” and that any changes in the official communication could indicate a lower likelihood of reductions in upcoming meetings. In the press conference following the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize that additional cuts will only occur if there is a significant deterioration in the labor market.
