Powell delivered a 25 bps cut to 3.50%, but don’t mistake it for generosity — this was the final drip of liquidity before the door slams shut.
🔥 THE DATA THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO SEE
Here’s where the real picture emerges:
📉 Small businesses shed 120,000 jobs in November
🏢 Large corporations added 90,000
➡️ The U.S. economy is splitting in two — one thriving, one collapsing.
ADP’s –32,000 print is the sharpest drop since April 2020. Yet at the same time…
📈 JOLTS shows 7.67 million job openings.
The labor market isn’t softening — it’s fracturing into two different realities.
🔥 INFLATION: THE UNCOMFORTABLE REALITY
📌 Inflation is stuck at 3%.
❌ The Fed’s 2% fantasy? Gone.
💼 The next dot plot will hint at just 1–2 cuts for 2026.
Translation:
High rates are here to stay — through the next presidency.
Cheap liquidity is officially history.
⚠️ WHAT THE HEADLINES WON’T SAY
The government shutdown crippled the economic data flow:
📉 No October unemployment reading
📉 November jobs report delayed to mid-January
📉 Powell is making the biggest policy call of the decade… in the dark
This is unprecedented.
This is dangerous.
This is power without visibility.
👀 COUNTDOWN TO MAY 2026
Powell’s term ends in May 2026.
Kevin Hassett is already in the wings.
Today’s 2:30 PM ET presser may mark Powell’s last major move before the Fed’s leadership resets.
🧨 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU
💳 Variable-rate debt → Long-term pain
🏠 Housing → Frozen over
🏦 Small business credit → Tightest in years
💰 Wealth divide → About to widen dramatically
Markets expected the cut (87% odds).
But the real shocker?
📉 A 77% chance of no cut in January.
We’ve shifted from crisis management → long-term adjustment.
3% inflation isn’t a ceiling anymore — it’s the new baseline.
🔥 THE EASY-MONEY ERA DIED TODAY
Most won’t notice.
But history just pivoted.
Watch the dot plot.
Watch the dissent.
Because the next chapter of the economy is being written quietly, line by line.
🚨 A historic page just turned.
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