The Fed lowered the rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, fully within the forecast.
But the main influence on the markets is not the numbers, but the comments: moderate economic growth, cooling labor market, slowing consumer spending... and at the same time - preserving inflation risks.
For the crypto market, this is a complex but interesting signal: monetary conditions are becoming softer, but the market must carefully monitor the pace of inflation decline.
🔍 1. What exactly did the Fed do: the framework of the decision
The Fed lowered the rate to 3.75%, which was expected. But the explanations are more important:
the economy is growing moderately;
consumer spending is slowing;
the labor market is normalizing;
inflationary risks still exist, especially in energy, services, and housing;
further reductions — very cautious (2026: -25 bps, 2027: -25 bps).
This is not a 'turn to softness,' but a managed descent along a pre-planned trajectory.
🧩 2. Labor market: finally signs of cooling
In the Fed's protocol, it emphasized:
unemployment will rise to 4.5% in 2025;
job creation is slowing;
the number of vacancies is decreasing;
the labor market is 'normalizing.'
This is critical — the labor market was the main restraining factor for rate reductions in 2023–2024.
Now, for the first time in a long time, the Fed acknowledges that wage pressure is no longer overheating the economy.
For crypto, this is positive:
➡️ fewer inflationary risks → greater chances for softer policy.
📉 3. Consumer spending is slowing: very important
The Fed notes that Americans continue to spend, but the pace has slowed.
This means:
demand is not driving inflation;
the cooling cycle is working;
The Fed may not fear “overheated” categories as in 2021–2022.
From the crypto market's side — this lowers the risk of a repeat of hard tightening.
⚠️ 4. Inflationary risks remain — and this is the braking element that was feared
The Fed separately mentions:
energy,
services,
housing
like categories where pressure may re-emerge.
This restrains the Fed from rapid reductions.
The market would like to see a roadmap for soft easing, but the regulator keeps the tone cautious.
🧭 5. Future trajectory of rates: this is not a cycle of reductions — this is stabilization
Officially:
in 2026 — only one reduction of 25 bps.
in 2027 — another -25 bps.
For macroeconomics, this is a signal:
➡️ The Fed sees the economy as stable and does not plan to rescue it with aggressive stimulus.
For the crypto market:
➡️ the absence of rapid easing means less cheap liquidity, but…
➡️ at the same time — less risk of a new wave of high inflation.
This is a healthy mid-term scenario.
🪙 6. How this is read by the crypto market
🟢 Bullish signals:
the rate is lowered;
the labor market is stabilizing;
wage pressure is decreasing;
consumer demand is evenly cooling;
inflation is under control, albeit slowly.
🔴 Bearish signals:
The Fed has not announced a cycle of reductions;
inflationary risks remain;
the trajectory of rates is very flat;
the absence of aggressive easing limits the scale of the rally.
📈 7. Market scenarios for crypto
Bitcoin:
receives a moderately positive impulse — stability and predictability of monetary policy are always beneficial for macro assets.
Ethereum:
support from rate reductions + its own fundamental triggers (L2, gas reduction, development of economic models).
Altcoins:
the reaction will be heterogeneous — without Powell's soft tone, the market does not enter a phase of risk expansion.
Conclusion from MoonMan567
The Fed lowered the rate to 3.75%, but did not open the 'window of aggressive reductions.'
This decision is not about cheap money, but about managed stabilization:
the labor market is cooling,
consumer demand is slowing,
inflationary risks are still alive,
the monetary trajectory remains slow.
For the crypto market, this means:
we are entering a phase of moderate, healthy mid-term bullish sentiment, but without spectacular vertical moves.
👉 Subscribe to @MoonMan567 — further analyses of CPI, NFP, PCE, and key signals on how monetary policy shapes the future cryptocurrency market.