Powell's Speech and Federal Reserve Policy Details
1. Inflation Risk is Biased Upward: Powell mentioned that inflation data is disclosed infrequently and the risks are biased upward, which means that the Federal Reserve's subsequent easing policies will be more cautious and will not easily increase rate cuts due to short-term economic fluctuations, thoroughly breaking the market's fantasy of 'sustained large-scale easing'.
2. Risk Balance and Reserve Adjustment: In recent months, the risk balance has shifted, reserve balances have dropped to ample levels, and the Federal Reserve's bond purchases are for reserve management rather than quantitative easing, indicating that this policy adjustment is a 'technical operation' rather than an increase in monetary easing, with limited actual impact on market liquidity.
Multi-level Impact on BTC
1. Short-term Direct Impact: Bearish Dominance, Selling Pressure Intensifies
The upward inflation risk + signals of non-substantive policy easing will strengthen BTC's market behavior of 'buying the expectation and selling the fact'. Funds that entered the market due to rate cut expectations will accelerate their exit, with BTC likely to experience a spike followed by a drop or a direct lower open in the early morning, and the pressure from the upper resistance will become more pronounced, making effective breakthroughs difficult.
2. Mid-term Sentiment Impact: Risk Appetite Continues to Cool
The Federal Reserve's vigilant attitude towards inflation will lead the market to form a consensus that 'the rate cut rhythm in 2026 will be much slower than expected', suppressing the long-term liquidity expectations in the crypto market. As the leading risk asset, BTC's capital allocation willingness will continue to decrease, and the subsequent oscillation center may gradually shift downwards rather than maintaining a high-level sideways trend.
3. Volatility Characteristics Impact: Bearish Oscillation, Spike Probability Increases
With low liquidity in the early morning, combined with the intertwined signals of 'inflation hawkish + neutral reserve management', BTC prices are prone to rapid declines followed by slight rebounds, and the frequency of spike market behavior will increase. Although the technical operation of reserve management does not constitute substantial bearishness, it will lead to market expectations of 'policy support' falling short, and the buying strength during BTC's pullback will be weaker than before, with an increased risk of breaking key support levels.
4. Capital Behavior Impact: Institutional Positions Tend to be Conservative
The upward inflation risk and policy divergence will make institutions more cautious about their BTC holding strategies, leading to a reluctance to increase positions significantly; on-site trading will primarily involve retail and short-term funds, and BTC's trend upward lacks support from major capital, making it difficult to see large-scale market movements in the short term. #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储重启降息步伐
