FOMC UPDATE: THE GOOD NEWS (BEARISH )
GDP growth for 2026: From 1.8% to 2.3% (Big Upgrade)
PCE inflation for 2026: From 2.6% to 2.4% (Cooling Faster)
Core PCE also improved
Perfect scenario for rate cuts, right? Wrong. Still from 3.6% to 3.4% in 2026. Same path with no extra cuts.
Also, in September, around 3-4 FOMC members expected rates at 3.6% or higher in 2026 (no cuts), but by now this number has increased to approximately 5-7 members, signaling a clear hawkish shift in committee consensus and that is pretty much the only thing in the Summary of Economic Projections document that market may see as bearish.
