Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points: a dovish tone with a hint of hawkishness, mixed reactions in the market.

1. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the December dot plot indicates only one rate cut is anticipated in 2026, far below market expectations. Among the 19 committee members, 7 opposed this rate cut, and Trump commented, "too little of a cut."

2. This month, the Fed initiated a $40 billion short-term Treasury purchase to expand the balance sheet (not QE), aimed at alleviating pressure in the overnight lending market, leading to a short-term rebound in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies due to surprising liquidity.

3. Powell emphasized that current interest rates are at the high end of the neutral range, with no preset policy path; simultaneously, the Trump family supports mining companies entering the top 22 in BTC reserves, and the CFTC clarified that Bitcoin can be used as collateral for derivatives, with institutions quietly positioning in the crypto market.

4. There are doubts about whether the short-term rebound can be sustained, and caution is advised regarding the risk of good news being fully priced in, as the market debates whether it is "dovish with a hint of hawkishness" or "clear hawkishness disguised as dovishness."

5. Technical pattern analysis; if the secondary surge does not break the 94500 range, watch for a pullback at the 90500 level. The medium-term trend will focus on the 3-day MACD formation, and a confirmed formation could lead to a breakthrough at 95000; if it leaks, it may test 86500!