The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut was entirely in line with market expectations, but Powell's remarks left me a bit disappointed. He clearly stated that this round of rate cuts would take a pause, similar to the three rate cuts at the end of 2024 followed by a pause—meaning there won't be further cuts in the short term. Although he emphasized that the entire rate cut cycle is not over and that no one is discussing rate hikes, this sounded more like soothing the market, while in practice, actions have already tightened significantly.
The two points that concern me the most: First, he mentioned that non-farm data has some discrepancies, and the real situation might show a monthly decrease of 20,000 jobs, which exposes issues with the statistical model; second, he emphasized that purchasing short-term bonds is to maintain market liquidity, which in fact is supporting interest rates. On the surface, these actions appear dovish, but combined with his implication that 'the likelihood of another rate cut during his term is low,' it actually makes me feel more hawkish than expected.
Now the market has placed its hopes on next June when Hasset takes over from Powell, expecting an increase in the number of rate cuts in the second half of the year. However, in the medium to short term, this state of 'pausing rate cuts + ambiguous liquidity' makes it hesitant for short-term funds to enter. The market trend in the next two to three months will likely still have to endure—without a clear direction and with liquidity not supporting, the cryptocurrency market needs to rely on its own solid logic to rise, rather than expecting the Federal Reserve to loosen its policy.
In summary: This rate cut did not give the market a strong boost, and Powell's statements are more conservative than I imagined. The improvement in short-term liquidity is questionable, and the market still needs to continue to grind. As a player in the cryptocurrency market, I am now more focused on the intrinsic value of projects and the actual trends in capital flow, rather than betting on a policy shift. The city lord will closely monitor the market and share exclusive analyses in the 'City Lord Village.' Hurry up and follow the city lord, join the city lord's big family, and dig for gold together in the cryptocurrency market!
