The Federal Reserve just issued its third 25bps rate cut of the year — bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.50%–3.75%, the lowest level in years.
The Fed cited elevated uncertainty, softer hiring, and rising downside risks to employment as key factors in the decision. October’s data showed job openings rising slightly to 7.67M, but hiring falling sharply by 218,000 — a combination that signals cooling momentum.
What’s raising eyebrows is that inflation data is now delayed until January after Trump postponed its release for the first time in over a decade. That left policymakers making a major rate decision without current CPI numbers, something several Fed members and economists openly worried about.
Markets reacted instantly:
• Dow +230 points
• S&P 500 and Russell also moved higher
• Fed’s new 2025 Summary of Economic Projections points to one rate cut in 2026, unchanged from September’s outlook
Notably, three Fed officials dissented, including Stephen Miran — favored by Trump — who argued for a sharper 50bps cut.
This cut signals a Fed leaning more toward protecting the labor market than fighting inflation right now. But with incomplete data and political pressure in the background, the path ahead feels less predictable than usual. Markets like it in the short term — but clarity on inflation will decide how durable this move is.
Do you think the Fed is acting early… or acting blind without updated inflation numbers?
