Capital never sleeps! Tonight is destined to be a sleepless night!
The Federal Reserve's decision is in the final countdown, and global liquidity is holding its breath in anticipation. Meanwhile, the crypto market has already ignited: $BTC is closing in on 100,000, $SOL has strongly broken through 4000; this is not the climax, just the foreplay. The real critical moment is at three o'clock in the morning.
This time, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 25bp for the third consecutive time. But don’t be fooled by the words "rate cut"—this is more like a hawkishly packaged rate cut.
In the past few weeks, the degree of division within the Federal Reserve has reached textbook levels:
Doves insist: Employment can’t hold on much longer; we must continue to ease.
Hawks counter: Inflation is stubbornly sticky; we can’t give the market any more sugar.
The final outcome is likely to be a compromise: rate cuts to soothe, but with extremely tough wording to tell you—sweetness stops here.
What the market truly cares about are the following four things:
1️⃣ What Powell says is more important than what he does.
Every adjective will be magnified and interpreted by the market. Institutions generally judge that he will imply: "Another rate cut? The difficulty has greatly increased."
2️⃣ The dot plot will expose internal fractures.
This chart may present a "Three Kingdoms" scenario: those who insist on no cuts, those who insist on further cuts, and even those who demand a 50bp cut will appear.
3️⃣ Economic data is walking a tightrope.
Inflation remains resilient, and employment is significantly weakening—this is the most dangerous combination; the Federal Reserve dares not be aggressive, nor can it ease.
4️⃣ The balance sheet may quietly shift.
It just stopped tapering in October, and now it might secretly restart "buying bonds but not calling it QE" as a form of implicit easing.
My judgment is simple:
Tonight is not just about setting interest rates; it also determines next year's global liquidity roadmap.
If the Federal Reserve gives a "hawkish rate cut," the market will fluctuate violently, but for crypto, this will instead be the starting point of a trend, not the end.
Liquidity will either be released or expected to be released—both are enough to ignite the next round of sentiment in Web3.
Global capital is waiting for the Federal Reserve's "key words."
And I just want to ask one question:
Are you ready to welcome three o'clock in the morning?
