Reminder to short on December 10th,
$BTC 94476 shorted, lowest 89900, short successful
$ETH 3447 shorted, lowest 3167, short successful
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The most important macro event of the year is just around the corner, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (December 9-10).
Although the outcome is already clear, the real market game has just begun.
The market generally expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is difficult to price in. How this interest rate meeting decides the trend of risk assets will certainly depend on the level of internal disagreement and the expectations for next year's guidance.
The internal disagreements this time may be more intense than imagined. The compromise forced by the opposition does not equate to a unified interest rate cut. At least from my perspective, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut, which will affect market sentiment. The cryptocurrency market relies on emotional liquidity, and a disunited rate cut may not necessarily be a positive for the crypto world.
Powell will likely land this 25bp cut, but he absolutely cannot appear too relaxed in front of the public. He must use more severe language to manage future rate cut expectations or clearly inform the market that there will be no autopilot mode for rate cuts in the future. The entire meeting will be packaged as an extremely cautious risk management action.
A rate cut is dovish, but a not-so-obvious dovish stance leads to volatility for crypto. The risk market hopes to see a certain new cycle, but the Federal Reserve and Powell are, in fact, intensifying future uncertainties while treating each meeting and dot plot release as a one-off action, resulting in a high probability that each rate cut (including next year) will lead to a bullish realization followed by a turbulent retreat.
If you have enough experience, you can tentatively short $BTC and $ETH within a few hours after the rate cut.
@币安Binance华语
Follow Web3 Koi Diary, and your purchased coins will multiply tenfold.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Or $ETH .
Although the outcome is already clear, the real market game has just begun.
The market generally expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is difficult to price in. How this interest rate meeting decides the trend of risk assets will certainly depend on the level of internal disagreement and the expectations for next year's guidance.
The internal disagreements this time may be more intense than imagined. The compromise forced by the opposition does not equate to a unified interest rate cut. At least from my perspective, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut, which will affect market sentiment. The cryptocurrency market relies on emotional liquidity, and a disunited rate cut may not necessarily be a positive for the crypto world.
Powell will likely land this 25bp cut, but he absolutely cannot appear too relaxed in front of the public. He must use more severe language to manage future rate cut expectations or clearly inform the market that there will be no autopilot mode for rate cuts in the future. The entire meeting will be packaged as an extremely cautious risk management action.
A rate cut is dovish, but a not-so-obvious dovish stance leads to volatility for crypto. The risk market hopes to see a certain new cycle, but the Federal Reserve and Powell are, in fact, intensifying future uncertainties while treating each meeting and dot plot release as a one-off action, resulting in a high probability that each rate cut (including next year) will lead to a bullish realization followed by a turbulent retreat.
If you have enough experience, you can tentatively short $BTC and $ETH within a few hours after the rate cut.
@币安Binance华语
Follow Web3 Koi Diary, and your purchased coins will multiply tenfold.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Or $ETH .
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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