$BTC $DOGE $ZEC
🚀🚀🚀, Three sentences to understand Bitcoin's brief drop below $91,000. The market collectively fell, triggered by a dual impact of 'strong dollar + strong liquidation'.
1. Macroeconomic: As the dollar strengthens, risk assets become 'weak'.
- The Federal Reserve has recently adopted a hawkish stance, significantly retracting market rate cut expectations, leading to a rapid increase in the dollar index and a simultaneous rise in treasury yields.
- High Beta crypto assets are the first to be affected, with BTC sliding from above $93,000 to a low of just below $91,000.
- The strengthening dollar also leads to a capital inflow into emerging markets, with cryptocurrencies being reduced as representatives of 'non-dollar liquidity'.
2. Market: $1.7 billion long positions liquidated, and shorts didn't benefit either.
- In the past 24 hours, approximately $1.7 billion in contracts across the network were liquidated, of which nearly $1.6 billion were long positions, with $966 million liquidated in just one hour, setting a record for the third-largest single-hour liquidation in history.
- After high leverage was abruptly removed, the selling pressure in the spot market increased, with mainstream coins like ETH, SOL, and DOGE experiencing declines of generally 6%–10%.
- On the options side, there was a surge in transactions at the $85,000 and $80,000 put strike prices, with implied volatility spiking, and short-term funds are still betting on further declines.
3. Sentiment: ETF funds have seen continuous outflows for five weeks, and institutions are 'lying flat'.
- The U.S. SEC's stablecoin reserve bill and new compliance guidelines for ETFs are about to be implemented, with regulatory uncertainty rising, leading some institutions to choose to hedge in advance.
- The spot BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of $2.6 billion over the past five weeks, marking the longest outflow period since March, with long-term funds 'only exiting and not entering'.
- The greed & fear index has dropped back to the 'fear' zone, social media activity has sharply declined, and retail investors' willingness to buy the dip is low. Musk's 🐶p🔥up🔥pi🔥es
💥Summary: Today's decline is not a fundamental shift but rather a resonance of 'dollar + strong liquidation' sentiment; the real direction will wait for the Federal Reserve to speak.
（🔥🔥Like and comment to discuss together!🔥🔥)
