1. Overall Market Temperature: The period of lying flat after the drop has not yet passed.
The overall market capitalization is still hovering around 3.1 trillion USD, with a slight drop of about 2% in the last 24 hours, a standard 'falling while yawning' market trend. BTC is struggling just above 90,000, with a frustrating trend of slight drops and slight rebounds these past few days.
ETH has returned to around 3200, after a noticeable pullback following a previous surge, with overall strength slightly weaker than BTC.
SOL is still stuck within the narrow range of 124–145, currently around 130;
2. Capital Flow: Prices are falling, but ETFs are still quietly picking up goods.
Yesterday, the overall spot BTC ETF in the United States surprisingly saw a net inflow of about 220 million USD, mainly due to IBIT and FBTC increasing their positions;
ETH spot ETF has also seen slight net inflows for the third consecutive day.
3. Narrative Temperature: The crazy shouting of orders has receded, leaving only 'normal optimism.'
Standard Chartered has cut its BTC forecast from 200,000 at the end of 2025 to 100,000, and postponed the super long-term target of 500,000 to 2030.
The media has started to talk less about the 'million myth' and more about liquidity, ETF structure, and institutional allocation.
The overall atmosphere has shifted from the 'myth period' back to the 'asset period'—still somewhat optimistic, but no longer so naive.
4. Macro & Regulatory Temperature: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates again, and the crypto sector has received a lifeline.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again last night by 25 basis points.
The federal funds rate range has been lowered from 3.75–4.0% to 3.5–3.75%;
This is the third consecutive interest rate cut this year, and rates have now reached a near three-year low.
In the FOMC, there were three dissenting votes, the disagreement being whether to cut more at once or to just hold off on cuts, indicating internal uncertainty about the economic outlook.
The implications for the crypto market likely have three layers:
1. The liquidity of risk assets will theoretically become looser.
The lower the interest rates, the worse the bond yields become; the attraction of high Beta assets like stocks, technology, and crypto will theoretically rise—
It's no wonder that last night the three major US stock indices surged, approaching historical highs.
2. But this is not a 'victorious interest rate cut,' rather a cut due to 'concerns about the economy stalling.'
The statement is very clear:
Employment is weakening, inflation is still relatively high, but there is no further deterioration, so a moderate rate cut is used to 'help support' the economy, not because everything is perfect.
3. The regulatory path is still being followed without deviation.
On one side, TRM Labs has organized: over 70% of countries are pushing stablecoin regulations, and 80% have financial institutions officially engaged in digital asset business;
On the other side, the UK's FCA and central bank are accelerating the integration of stablecoins into payment and clearing systems.
In other words: monetary policy is relaxing a bit, and the regulatory framework is becoming thicker.
For the crypto sector, in the short term, it's a breath of oxygen for risk assets, and in the long term, it's a confirmation that 'the game is becoming more standardized.'
5. Sectors & Sentiment: High Beta takes the hit first, whales slowly accumulate.
Today, most high-volatility sectors are in the green.
DePIN and AI, which had risen the most previously,
Now when it falls, it also falls particularly hard, with high Beta once again being repaired first.
There’s a small detail on the SOL side:
Last night, a new wallet withdrew 200,001 SOL from Binance, roughly $28 million, the price is still falling short-term, but on-chain supply is actually being slowly drained.
The overall sentiment is not a panic-type collapse,
It’s more like: prices are in a risk education class, large funds are both disdainful and secretly picking up bargains.
