Brothers, I am Mig.
I just brewed a cup of strong tea and stared at this four-hour chart for twenty minutes. The more I look, the more it feels off—this market atmosphere is completely different from what it was last night before sleep.
The 'rise then fall' that BTC has shown is probably not a washout but a clear signal of a weakening trend. No more nonsense, let's get to the hard stuff.
News: Don't overlook this 'deep-water bomb.'
Leadership changes = policy uncertainty. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may be replaced in the second half of next year, which means that the current interest rate cut path may be completely overturned in the future. Once policy swings, global high-risk assets will inevitably face capital outflows. Moreover, the dot plot shows that the rate cut next year will be far lower than market expectations, indicating that the Federal Reserve remains vigilant against inflation. A high-interest-rate environment maintained for a longer time means higher capital costs, resulting in less 'fresh water' flowing into the cryptocurrency market.
Powell's 'patience' = our 'torment': he said the Federal Reserve is 'in a favorable position to observe patiently', implying that there will be no market rescue in the short term. Poor economic data? Then just wait and see. Such statements will lower institutional risk appetite.
Considering the combination: the technical death cross coincides with tightening macro expectations, this is called a 'Davis double kill'. Don't ask why it dropped, ask: how deep will it drop?
Technical aspect: this is not a pullback, this is a 'continuation of decline'.
91000 is the first hurdle, 92000 is the iron ceiling. If the rebound doesn't reach here, the first target support is 87700; if it breaks, look directly at 86500. If market panic spreads, the bottom support of 84000 is not impossible to see.
The MACD yellow and white lines have formed a death cross below the zero axis, which is a textbook bearish signal. The volume is still shrinking, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are not entering the market at all. In the long-short game indicators, the bearish forces have already taken the upper hand.
In simple terms: the bullish pattern has been broken; now is not the time to guess the bottom, but to look for bearish opportunities.
Mig's personal opinion: If BTC's intraday pressure doesn't break the 91000-92000 range, it indicates that the bullish pattern has transformed into a bearish pattern, looking at the support range of 87700-86500 below, with no signs of a rebound in the short term. Next week, there will be news of interest rate hikes in Japan, which is purely bearish, and the downward trend may continue until the end of the month.
What should retail investors do? Remember these 3 points:
Don't rush to bottom fish: if 87700 can't hold, the next level is 86500, don't go all in.
Reduce positions near resistance levels: if the rebound fails to rise above 91000-92000, then run if you need to, don't be greedy.
Consider chasing long positions only after a breakout: only by breaking 92000 can we look up to 94000; otherwise, it’s all just a trap.
I've seen too many retail investors stubbornly hold on, only to sell at the lowest point in the end. Trading cryptocurrencies is not about being stubborn; if the trend is not right, take a break. The current trend is clearly bearish; what you need to do is not to 'fight for a rebound', but to 'wait for a clear signal'.
If you don't know the specific entry timing and exit points, fans holding positions can pay attention to Mig. Mig will announce daily cryptocurrencies and entry points as well as exit timings in the chat room!
$BTC
