2025.12.11《$btc》Short Essay

After the expectations for interest rate cuts end, this market will likely be dead. The next tradable expectation may be the selection of the chairman of the Federal Reserve. However, this period is at least until after Christmas, so for the next half month, I believe it will be a structure of oscillating downwards, leading to a significant downward adjustment. As for whether it will break the previous low, it is hard to say now. In my view, breaking it would be a great opportunity for left-side trading. Holding it would create opportunities for right-side trading. Either way, it’s an opportunity; it just depends on whether you can control your inner fear during the decline and dare to buy in batches. If you can, you deserve to earn. If you can't, it’s understandable, and you can look for opportunities for right-side trading again.

I set the line at 92000 as the dividing line between bulls and bears. Until the price breaks through here, I will short on rallies. If the price can break through and stabilize here, it indicates that the bulls still have the intention to lure more buying upwards. At that time, shorting will require caution.

Generally, there is a rebound after a sharp drop, so for today and tomorrow, the main focus will likely be on the rebound. As for the strength of the rebound, it cannot be estimated now. However, I can set another dividing line at 90700; if this level is effectively broken, then this rebound is qualified. If the price meets resistance and falls back, directly breaking the low formed today, the market will become very weak. Although there may still be rebounds later, the upward rebound space will be hard to achieve significantly.

In summary, I personally tend to believe that the price will not drop suddenly; there should be a counterattack from the bulls in between, but it shouldn’t be a real rise; it’s basically a lure. In summary, arrange your short positions in batches at high levels. If the price starts a significant downward adjustment from the line of 94500, seeing the range [86600-87500] should not be a big problem. #加密市场反弹 #BitDigital转型 #美联储FOMC会议