$MERL The last three attempts to break through 0.50 were quickly knocked down each time, and the upward pressure is very apparent. The bears have gradually taken control of the rhythm.
The trading volume is shrinking, yet the selling pressure remains heavy, with trend lines and previous highs forming a double suppression. After the MACD death cross, the green bars (note: commonly red bars; if the original text refers to bearish momentum bars, they are generally called green bars) are still extending, and the RSI has once again fallen below 40, indicating weakening sentiment and structure.
Don't forget that in December, there are 4 rounds of unlocking, with a total of 70 million tokens to be released, and currently, there are no signs of major players defending the market. The current rebound seems more like a technical repair during the unlocking gaps, and its strength is questionable.
Buying support above 0.34 is weak, with 0.30 → 0.25 → 0.20 below possibly becoming subsequent targets for retracement.
The short-term trend is bearish, with risks and rewards not matching well. It is advised to observe more and act less, and not to rush into catching the falling knife; maintaining a wait-and-see attitude is more prudent.
