After the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut last night, Bitcoin first surged and then plummeted. The market is mainly reacting to the pessimistic expectations regarding the future dot plot, which indicates only one interest rate cut is expected next year. This significantly deviates from the market's previous expectations for multiple rate cuts, leading the market to shift from optimism to pessimism.
Currently, on the macro front, there is still a thunderstorm in December. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on December 18. Although the market has already priced in part of this, there will likely still be panic when that time comes.
On the altcoin front, Luna\lunc\ustc and others have surged wildly, with trading volumes skyrocketing. Let's see if this can be sustained; if it continues, some altcoins may experience a wave of gains, as there is motivation for the whales to pump and dump. Currently, the main thing the market lacks is confidence. As long as confidence returns, everything will be back on track.
BTC
BTC's interest rate was cut by 25 basis points in the early morning, but the price did not break through; it fell again. The target in the bearish phase is the 88.5K-88.9K range, and if there's a rebound, expect it to reach 91-91.7K. The market is still in a volatile style and lacks a clear pattern.
Support range: 89648-89000, opportunities to go long can be found within this range, stop loss if it breaks below. No major positive news recently; everyone is still mainly focusing on shorting high. Short-term can go long, mid to long-term should short on highs, take profits on longs in time, and shorts can be held.
ETH
ETH tested the 0.786 pressure before falling; ETH also surged after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and Powell's speech at the FOMC meeting, but after all good news was priced in, it quickly retracted. This morning, four solid bearish candles brought Ethereum back to 3200 points.
ETH has a trend line and support resonance at 3146; according to the current market, ETH has not adjusted properly and carries further adjustment risks; wait on the right side to see if it breaks below 3146 and pulls back above to go long for a rebound, with a stop loss at 3067 and targets at 3225 and 3285.
LUNA, LUNC, USDT
LUNA, LUNC, and USDT have all experienced several times the increase, the biggest reason is still closely related to the founder Do Kwon, who will receive sentencing hearings in New York today. This matter can also be considered as a pre-emptive hype expectation, waiting for a good position to short LUNA and LUNC. The ultimate outcome for such coins is to return where they came from!
ZEC
ZEC longs have basically cashed out at the highest point; I also suggested taking all profits yesterday, and sure enough, a small-level M-top occurred followed by a downward pullback. In such a market, one should not be greedy for the last bite; otherwise, profits can easily retract. Remember, if you've made a profit, it's time to run.
CYS
Good news: 1. Invested by HashKey, OK, PolyChain 2. Community and Kaito claiming have not started yet 3. Pool price is not particularly high 4. Alpha sentiment is quite good.
Bad news: 1. Airdrop situation is unclear 2. Only listed on Bitget and Mexc.
ZK + AI + DePIN is a popular project combining three elements, with self-developed ASIC chips and its own physical devices generating profits. This project is a collaboration for ASTER's third trading competition. Keep an eye on the official Twitter for airdrop receiving time and details; this type of project definitely has a chance on Binance contracts, and the probability for spot trading is quite high, so pay attention at the opening.
Currently, the ZK track is relatively cold, with overall activity and coin price performance not looking great, such as $STRK and $ZK. However, the main selling pressure still comes from airdrops, but this project's prospects are quite good and may have a lot of potential.
BTX
Total supply 1.5 billion, initial circulation 15%, pool price 0.037, opening price may be around $0.08. 10% of total supply is allocated for airdrop.
Good news: 1. Alpha sentiment is good 2. Launching today.
Bad news: 1. The token economics looks like it was written by a template or AI 2. No financing, no team, the product feels like air.
The project's on-chain holdings are highly concentrated (one address controls over 82.5%), and the tokenization of music copyrights carries regulatory uncertainty, posing high risks. It is nearly a three-no project, and with high control, those KOLs still shouting about ecological potential are either morally compromised after being paid or have water in their brains.
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