The last meeting of the Federal Reserve in 2025 didn't cause much of a stir, but the dot plot was slightly looser than in September, though it fell far short of the easing the market hoped for. Now everyone is watching 2026—after Powell and Hassett hand over, the new dot plot in June will be the real deal.
Powell's attitude has clearly softened this time. Although he did not commit to a rate cut in January, he is quite optimistic about inflation, saying that the impact of tariffs on goods inflation is likely "one-off." He stated: if inflation continues to decline, the Federal Reserve will be willing to cut rates more; if the labor market weakens, the Fed will definitely take action. Compared to last December's hawkish stance, he seems like a different person.
In the next month, data will be key—the weaker the labor data, the higher the probability of a rate cut; the milder the inflation data, the higher the probability of a rate cut as well. One more thing to keep an eye on: the Supreme Court may rule on the tariff issues from Trump's time in January, which brings significant uncertainty.
Bitcoin is even more lively. Recently, the turnover rate has surged, clearly indicating that everyone is gaming during this key policy window. After the meeting is concluded, the turnover rate is expected to gradually decline. Short-term players are very active, and many who entered below $90,000 have already cashed out.
Currently, the chip structure is stable, and there are no signs of a crash; those who are stuck at high positions are not panicking to cut losses. Future market sentiment will still depend on the data—if the expectations for a rate cut continue to ferment in January, the heat can still continue. The focus should be on the economic data released in December, as this data will reshape expectations for the interest rate path.
I ponder that Powell is clearly more dovish than last year and is very optimistic about the economy in 2026. As for Bitcoin, the soaring turnover rate is typical of operations during a policy window, and data is now the true master. Don't listen to those superficial analyses; focus on labor, inflation data, and the Supreme Court matters, which are much more concrete. Pay attention to the lord of the city, to help you avoid 90% of retail investors' pitfalls, join Zhuge Village, and let's meet tonight in the village! I am laying in wait for coins that can yield 10 times returns every day!
