The price of Terra ($LUNA ) surged dramatically ahead of the upcoming verdict for the project's co-founder, Do Kwon, driven by market speculation and recently introduced ecosystem updates.
Summary
The price of Terra surged dramatically over the last day after a long period of consolidation.
Trading activity and open positions indicate that traders are opening new positions, supporting short-term momentum.
The movement is driven by events, and analysts warn that the verdict could lead to a rapid reversal of the trend.
At the time of publication, Terra was trading at around $0.2076, marking a 39% increase in the last day. The token oscillated between $0.147 and $0.243 over the last 24 hours. This jump extends the sharp rally from the last 7 days of 188% and a 30-day increase of 129%, although LUNA remains over 98% below its all-time high before the collapse.
Daily turnover rose to $418 million, marking a jump of 38% compared to yesterday, indicating a wave of speculative inflows into the token. Futures market data adds credibility to the bullish trend.
Derivatives market volume increased by 5% to around $816 million, while open interest rose by 18% to $29 million, according to CoinGlass data. Increasing open interest during aggressive price movement often means that traders are building new positions, which is a signal of active conviction regarding the short-term narrative driving the market.
Speculation around the verdict drives the breakout
Most of the excitement is related to the court hearing scheduled for December 11 in the USA for Terra co-founder Do Kwon. He was expelled from Montenegro earlier this year and in August pleaded guilty to charges of wire fraud and conspiracy related to the collapse of TerraUSD (UST) in 2022, which wiped out about $40 billion in value.
Prosecutors are demanding a 12-year sentence, while traders prepare for the possibility of a milder ruling that could bring a form of closure for the ecosystem. Viral but false rumors about the 'release' of Kwon helped boost community momentum, fueling a rally that pushed weekly gains toward 200%.
While some see this as the final chapter of the Terra (LUNA) legal saga, analysts warn that the entire reaction is driven by events and susceptible to sharp reversals after the judgment is announced. A harsher than expected ruling could trigger quick profit realizations.
Nonetheless, recent developments in the Terra ecosystem give traders a concrete anchor. The v2.18 update on December 8 improved security and interoperability with Cosmos (ATOM), as well as strengthened the relationship between LUNA and USTC.
Governance Proposal #4844 was also adopted, opening discounted OTC liquidity channels, which helped alleviate concerns about thin market depth.
Technical analysis of Terra price
The daily chart shows a clean breakout from a long consolidation zone where LUNA traded below its 20-day average with low volume for weeks. A group of powerful green candles pushed the market above the upper Bollinger band, abruptly ending this period.
The breakout caused a rapid spike in volatility, with expanding Bollinger bands as buyers entered and absorbed selling pressure on the way up. The 20-day moving average has already turned upward, indicating that the short-term trend has clearly changed.
Momentum signals confirm the strength of this move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches 80, indicating strong buying pressure, but also suggests the risk of exhaustion in the near term.
Nonetheless, momentum and MACD continue to point in the right direction, and most short-term and medium-term moving averages have aligned in a bullish trend. Such a structure typically appears in the early stages of a trend, not at its end.
Support is now found in the mid $0.14â0.16 range, where the breakout first formed, while resistance is building around the recent peak near $0.24. A clean close above this level could extend the move, especially if volume remains high.
Failure to hold the upper Bollinger band would likely invite a correction toward the rising 20-day average as traders take profits after an unusually rapid weekly increase.
Key points
The price of Terra (LUNA) rose by 39% to around $0.2076 in the last day, with a 7-day rally of 188% and a 30-day increase of 129%.
The rally is fueled by speculation around Do Kwon's ruling on December 11 in the USA for wire fraud and conspiracy related to the collapse of TerraUSD (UST) in 2022, which wiped out $40 billion in value.
Kwon was expelled from Montenegro, pleaded guilty in August, and faces up to 12 years in prison; traders expect a possible milder ruling or closure of the case.
Viral false rumors of his release fueled community momentum, pushing weekly gains toward 200%.
Recent Terra updates include the v2.18 upgrade on December 8 for better security, interoperability with Cosmos (ATOM), and a strengthened LUNAâUSTC relationship; Governance Proposal #4844 adopted for discounted OTC liquidity channels, addressing thin market depth.
Trading volume reached $418 million (up 38%), derivatives volume $816 million (up 5%), open interest $29 million (up 18%), according to CoinGlass, indicating new positions and speculative inflows.
Analysts emphasize the event-driven nature of the reaction, with the risk of sharp reversals after the verdict, especially if it is harsher than expected.
Technical analysis: Breakout from consolidation above the upper Bollinger band, RSI near 80 (buying pressure, but risk of exhaustion), 20-day MA turned upward, aligned moving averages; support at $0.14â0.16, resistance at $0.24.
Quotes
Increasing open interest during aggressive price movement often means that traders are building new positions, which is a signal of active conviction regarding the short-term narrative driving the market.
Viral but false rumors about 'release' helped pump community momentum, fueling a rally that pushed weekly gains toward 200%.
Analysts warn that the entire reaction is driven by events and susceptible to a sharp reversal after the judgment is announced. A harsher than expected ruling could trigger quick profit realizations.
Such a structure typically appears in the early stages of a trend, not at its end. (referring to aligned moving averages)
Key data and statistics
Current price: ~0.2076 USD (up 39% in a day; range 0.147â0.243 USD in the last 24 hours).
7-day rally: 188%.
30-day increase: 129%.
Distance from ATH before the collapse: >98% below.
Daily trading volume: $418 million (up 38% compared to yesterday).
Derivatives volume: $816 million (up 5%).
Open interest: $29 million (up 18%), according to CoinGlass.
Collapse of UST in 2022: ~40 billion USD of wiped value.
Requested prosecutor's sentence: 12 years.
