币市雷达
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Trump is no longer pretending, he's going for it directly! Today, the U.S. military boarded the 'Captain' oil tanker near the coast of Venezuela, seizing 1.1 million barrels of crude oil, two helicopters, and 20 operators. There was no resistance. This is not just an issue with one oil tanker. The 'Captain' oil tanker was sanctioned in 2022 for operating through an illegal oil network run by Gulf merchants, funding Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The tanker loaded Merey crude oil at Jose Port on December 4. Destination: Cuba, then Asia.
What happens next will reshape the global oil market. Now all Venezuelan shipping contracts must include a 'war clause.' Freight rates are skyrocketing. The discount on Merey crude oil has doubled, increasing from $8/barrel below Brent crude to $15/barrel below. The Venezuelan state oil company (PDVSA) has completely lost its negotiation leverage. When enforcement shifts from paper sanctions to real actions, market dynamics will change dramatically. The mathematics of deterrence is brutal. Venezuela exports 921,000 barrels of crude oil daily.
As the black ship operators reassess risks, daily exports of 300,000 to 500,000 barrels of crude oil may disappear. The collateral damage is evident. Cuba's oil imports have plummeted by 35% this year. Provinces can only receive 2 to 4 hours of electricity supply each day. The seized tanker is their lifeline. Meanwhile, 15,000 U.S. soldiers are stationed in the Caribbean. The 'Gerald R. Ford' carrier strike group has been deployed. Since September, 87 people have died in 22 attacks.
Trump stated yesterday: 'Maduro's good days are over.' Maduro said today: 'Now is not the time for cowards, but for battle.' This is not an epilepsy attack, this is a demonstration. The paper sanctions have ended, and actual enforcement has begun. U.S. Attorney General Bondi: 'Today, the FBI, Homeland Security Investigations, and the U.S. Coast Guard, with the support of the Department of War, executed a seizure warrant, confiscating a tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran.' The chain reaction has begun.
What happens next will reshape the global oil market. Now all Venezuelan shipping contracts must include a 'war clause.' Freight rates are skyrocketing. The discount on Merey crude oil has doubled, increasing from $8/barrel below Brent crude to $15/barrel below. The Venezuelan state oil company (PDVSA) has completely lost its negotiation leverage. When enforcement shifts from paper sanctions to real actions, market dynamics will change dramatically. The mathematics of deterrence is brutal. Venezuela exports 921,000 barrels of crude oil daily.
As the black ship operators reassess risks, daily exports of 300,000 to 500,000 barrels of crude oil may disappear. The collateral damage is evident. Cuba's oil imports have plummeted by 35% this year. Provinces can only receive 2 to 4 hours of electricity supply each day. The seized tanker is their lifeline. Meanwhile, 15,000 U.S. soldiers are stationed in the Caribbean. The 'Gerald R. Ford' carrier strike group has been deployed. Since September, 87 people have died in 22 attacks.
Trump stated yesterday: 'Maduro's good days are over.' Maduro said today: 'Now is not the time for cowards, but for battle.' This is not an epilepsy attack, this is a demonstration. The paper sanctions have ended, and actual enforcement has begun. U.S. Attorney General Bondi: 'Today, the FBI, Homeland Security Investigations, and the U.S. Coast Guard, with the support of the Department of War, executed a seizure warrant, confiscating a tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran.' The chain reaction has begun.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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