The essence of the "fundamentals" of Bitcoin $BTC is essentially a psychological bottom built up from various costs.
Mining costs are really interesting: the shutdown price for miners is the hardest bottom, but this bottom fluctuates with the adjustment of computing power. The cost price for those MicroStrategy folks is more like a reference line for institutional buying, and the continuous buying by ETFs indeed gives the market a relatively stable expectation.
I think it feels more like a game among several big players now. It has become very difficult for traditional market makers to completely control this market; the volume of funds is just too large. Now, it’s more about players in different cost ranges competing with each other.
The real question is: when everyone knows these cost lines, how much meaning do these supports still have? The market fears the most is when the consensus is too uniform; that’s often the beginning of a reversal.
So I always say, it's fine to look at costs, but don’t take it as an absolute safety boundary.
Honestly, every time I see terms like "integration of real assets" and "institutional capital", I just want to laugh.
FF's technical side has collapsed like this, and they are still boasting about RWA integration.
MACD and RSI are both negative signals, the price has broken through key moving averages; at this point, what are we talking about institutional capital entering? Institutions are not fools; they won't take positions when the technicals look so bad.
The funniest part is that with token unlocks imminent and such significant supply pressure, they expect RWA adoption to save the day. Basically, it’s like: our project is about to collapse, but we have the concept! Integration of real assets sounds so grand!
The harsh reality is: the market does not lack concepts; what it lacks is real money buying. FF right now is a typical case where the narrative cannot keep up with the selling pressure, and the technicals are more honest than the fundamentals.
In such times, the best strategy is to wait, wait until there is really substantive progress before talking. Otherwise, it’s like catching a falling knife.
