$ETH this wave has really been dragged down by $BTC . From a technical perspective, Ethereum's independent market trend is actually brewing, but when the leader coughs, the second must catch a cold.
The current issue is: the market is still acting according to BTC's face. For ETH to truly emerge from an independent bull market, what is needed is not a technical breakthrough, but a narrative reconstruction. The fundamentals such as the Layer2 ecosystem, ETF capital inflow, and staking yields are all improving, but retail investors still habitually follow the big coin.
To put it bluntly, it's now just a matter of a time window. If BTC can stabilize at this position, the room for ETH to catch up will be quite considerable. But if the leader continues to falter, then this so-called "trend formation" is a false proposition.
The market has never lacked technical analysts; what it lacks are people who can understand the game of capital.
The KITE infrastructure project is really interesting: it claims to be AI-agent payment, but essentially it is still doing traditional micropayment wheels.
Institutional investment sounds very sexy, but if you look at the unlocking timetable, you will know that the tokenomics of such projects are basically chronic death. Strong on-chain activities? I would rather believe that this is the project party brushing data to maintain heat.
The real question is: the payment infrastructure needed by AI agents is already cheap enough with existing Layer2. What pain point does KITE really solve? Or is it just riding on the concept of AI?
The market's patience with infrastructure projects is already very limited; unless they can present truly differentiated products, it's just another storytelling project. Bearish technical indicators combined with unlocking pressure, this combination is basically a short signal.
