Finally, the FOMC has ended and as I said before, I didn't want to write any deep analysis before the meeting because Powell's tone always determines the next step more than any chart. Now everything is clear — the Federal Reserve made it clear yesterday that the next rate cut depends entirely on incoming data, nothing is guaranteed.

The primary data first is the CPI for November, expected to be around ~3.0% year-on-year, and will be released on December 18. This is cooling, not hot. Then we have the labor data for November, with an unemployment estimate of around ~4.44% and specific models already showing job losses. Overall, the data looks weak, which is exactly what the Federal Reserve needs if they are even considering a cut again.

But timing is important. Historically, the Federal Reserve has not cut in January because there is no meeting. The next FOMC meeting is in February 2026, and for that, they need continuous weak data for at least 3 months, not just one report. So, the data for November, December, and January will determine whether the cut in February is real.

As for BTC — the reason it didn't break 88,000 dollars wasn't magic. The FOMC statement included a plan to resume buying short-term T-bills to manage reserves, and this signal helped calm the markets and slow selling. Without that signal, it was almost certain that 88,000 would have been broken. BTC could drop below 88,000 in the short term, but based on the cooling macro data, breaking the main structure (84,000 - 80,000) is less likely unless inflation turns hot again.

Now the big question — which Christmas gift?

Honestly yes, if the CPI comes in weak and the jobs remain weak, a holiday rally is possible. In this case, a recovery of BTC to 94,000 - 96,000 is normal, and a move towards 100,000 is possible before the end of the year. Weak economic data always reduces downward pressure.

So the next few days are the most important. If the weak trend continues, a rate cut in February becomes a real window. If the data turns hot, the Federal Reserve will wait. Right now, BTC is stable because the macroeconomy is cooling and the Fed is not in an aggressive stance.

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