The Pi Coin price rose steadily in November while most major tokens struggled. But this week that changed. The token has dropped nearly 10% in the past seven days and more than 4% in the last 24 hours. The drop below a key level confirmed a clear pattern break on the daily chart, which many traders may see as a 'doomsday' risk, as it could push the price towards a new all-time low if selling continues.
The main question now is whether the chart can recover this time.
Pattern break opens the way to a new low.
Pi Coin dropped below the neckline at $0.219, completing a standard head-and-shoulder pattern, which may indicate a possible bearish reversal.
The usual downward expectation arises from the difference between the neckline and the head. This suggests a possible drop of about 22.8%, bringing Pi Coin around $0.169.
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This is important because the current all-time low of Pi Coin is around $0.172 according to CoinGecko. A drop towards $0.169 would thus mean a new low. However, two metrics may potentially help PI avoid this risk.
Sellers are strong, but buyers are still showing signs of life.
There are still signs of support from large buyers. One indication comes from the money flow. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which shows how much big money is coming in or out, shows a small divergence. Between December 9 and 11, the price made a lower low, but the CMF actually rose. This usually indicates that some buyers are catching the dips.
The CMF also broke above the short-term downward trend, but has not yet crossed above the zero line. At the zero line, the money flow shifts from net selling to net buying. Pi Coin needs that shift to show strength.
The momentum shows the same picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying pressure and selling pressure, also showed divergence. Between November 4 and December 10, the PI price made a higher low, while the RSI formed a lower low – a hidden bullish divergence. This may indicate that selling pressure is weakening.
These early signals do not reverse the breakdown, but they do show that sellers do not have full control.
Key Pi Coin price levels determine fate.
The Pi Coin price is around $0.208 at the time of writing. The key line is $0.192. A breakthrough below this level could open the way to $0.169 – the pattern target – and result in a new low for the chart.
For recovery, Pi Coin must first reclaim $0.233. This level is above the right shoulder and would show improvement. A complete trend reversal will only occur if the price rises above $0.284. This is the area above the head of the pattern.
At this moment, Pi Coin is caught between pressure and early signs of support. The breakdown points to a new low, but the divergences indicate that buyers are still active. The next move depends on whether the price holds at the $0.192 support or gives in to the downward trend.