Not-QE, Not-2019: Why the Fed’s $40B T-Bill Play Signals Macro Distress for BTC and SPX

The Federal Reserve’s decision to resume purchasing short-term T-bills, injecting approximately $40 billion per month into the market starting December 12th, has drawn comparisons to the "Not-QE" episode of late 2019. While the tool remains the same—effectively expanding the Fed’s balance sheet—the underlying drivers are fundamentally different, signaling potential divergence for both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Bitcoin (BTC).

The 2019 intervention was a purely technical fix for a liquidity crisis in the repo market, occurring amid a strong economy with record-low unemployment. Conversely, the 2025 program is being implemented against a backdrop of macro stress: slowing growth, tightening credit, and unemployment that has been persistently rising for nearly two years. This time, the "why" is economic weakness, not just plumbing issues. This distinction suggests that while the 2019 liquidity injection strongly propelled BTC and SPX higher, the current environment—marked by deteriorating fundamentals—may prevent a simple repeat of that price action, making the forthcoming unemployment print (Dec 16th) a crucial gauge of the intervention's efficacy. $BTC