The market has rebounded as expected. Bitcoin once surged to $94,000, and Ethereum approached $3,400, with the total market capitalization rebounding nearly 15% from last week's low. The clear 'signal' of this round of #cryptocurrency market rebound is unmistakable: the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has become the most direct driving force. CME data shows that the market is pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which has almost set the tone for the sentiment of short-term risk assets.
However, savvy investors will look deeper. The current rebound is not merely a reflex to interest rate policies; it reveals a profound structural change in the cryptocurrency market: the correlation with traditional finance, especially tech stocks in the U.S., is strengthening at an unprecedented rate. Some analyses point out that the average correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index had risen to 0.5 by 2025, far exceeding the levels seen in 2024. This means that the cryptocurrency market is no longer an isolated alternative asset; its pulse is now resonating in sync with macro liquidity and the risk appetite for tech stocks.
Therefore, assessing the 'durability' of this rebound hinges on answering two questions:
1. After the rate cut, can the liquidity story continue? The market's focus has shifted from 'whether to cut rates' to the Federal Reserve's outlook on the interest rate path for 2026.
2. Can the dominant risk sentiment in U.S. stocks (especially in the AI sector) remain robust?
The conclusion is that we are in a more complex and 'mainstreamed' stage of the market. Price fluctuations are no longer solely determined by narratives within the circle but are increasingly influenced by global macro liquidity, regulatory processes (such as the already effective 'Stablecoin Act'), and the whims of traditional capital markets.
In such a market, chasing short-term volatility is certainly a strategy, but perhaps there is a more grounded way to participate: returning to the original intention of blockchain technology to 'create real value' by seeking and supporting concrete actions that are committed to solving real-world problems.
This is also why, in addition to focusing on charts, my gaze is always directed toward communities like #MAX . Amidst the complex market noise, these efforts focused on long-term construction and value realization offer a distinctly different certainty. After all, true value creation often possesses a vitality that transcends any cycle of price fluctuations.
