$BTC Short-Term Holders Are Bleeding, But This Is Exactly Where Cycles Reignite

The chart tells a clean story: short-term holders (STHs) have slipped deep into realized losses, reaching the same capitulation zones that historically mark major cycle reset points. Profitability flipped negative and has been grinding near the -10% range, signaling stress, forced exits, and weak-hand flushing.

Meanwhile, BTC price is hovering tightly around the STH realized price band. Every time the market compresses into this zone, it creates a battle line between distribution and accumulation.

If price reclaims above this band with strength, STHs flip back into profit and momentum typically accelerates. If not, deeper shakeouts often follow.

What stands out:

• High-loss regime is expanding, showing fear and exhaustion

• Price compressing under STH realized price is a classic mid-cycle pressure point

• Historically, this is where strong-hand accumulation quietly begins

• Volatility is primed, and directional resolution tends to be violent

This phase isn’t weakness; it’s structural cleansing.

The market is removing leverage, flushing short-term expectations, and preparing liquidity for the next sustained move.

Cycles don’t top when STHs are this deep in the red.

Cycles begin from here.

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