Last night, the Federal Reserve finally took action——cutting interest rates by 25 basis points.
But don't rush to be happy, their remarks are clearly hawkish, cutting the expectation for interest rate cuts next year by more than half.
In summary:
Hawkish in words, but handing you a sweet date——$40 billion buyback.
The market was stunned by this set of 'both fragile and loud combination punches'.
The price of the coin immediately gave the answer:
BTC dropped from 94,000 to 89,000, with the good news realized, it was directly fully sold.
Do you think it ends here?
No, this is just the prologue.
The real bad news has not yet come. Japan's interest rate hike is the knife hanging over our heads.
The market currently has a huge misjudgment:
Everyone is focused on the Fed but has forgotten about Japan.
The reality is—Japan raising interest rates is a high-probability event, and this knife is still hanging over global risk assets.
As long as Japan has not announced the results, the market remains in a state of extreme sensitivity.
Any slight change can cause prices to plunge, even more severely than yesterday.
Why?
Because when Japan raises interest rates, global arbitrage funds flow back to the East, and US bonds, the stock market, and BTC are all squeezed, with liquidity directly withdrawn.
To put it bluntly, this wave of decline is not over yet; do not expect a strong rebound in the short term.
So when will the decline stop? This is what most people care about.
I will state a conclusion that many may not want to face: the real rebound will not appear this year.
Why?
Because the Fed's current rate cut is not a 'liquidation type rate cut', but a 'passive, restrained rate cut.'
The effort is insufficient, the willingness is weak, and the stimulus is limited.
What is truly worth looking forward to is the political shift next year—if the 'reliable faction' comes to power, that will be the real starting point of a loosening cycle and the era of monetary easing.
The reliable faction is a typical 'rate-cutting faction', and the monetary inclination after taking office is very clear.
And that will be the true starting point of BTC's prosperity.
To put it bluntly, we are still in the calm before the storm.
The real bull market only comes after a complete monetary easing.
I have mentioned the response strategy multiple times in my previous articles; there is no need to go against the trend.
The current market characteristics are very clear:
The Fed's rate cut has landed, all out.
The speech is hawkish, continuing to suppress expectations.
Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates, and the entire market enters a 'liquidity contraction fear' mode.
Once the technical level breaks, any rebound will be short-lived.
The main force has no incremental increase; the bulls’ confidence is only being held by repurchases.
So the strategy is very clear: all rebounds are supply points for the bears.
This is not pessimism; it is following the trend. This is the most basic survival principle of all top traders.
Let me say one last heartfelt word:
What we can do now is not to fantasize about a reversal, but to tighten our pockets, defend quietly, and wait for the real prosperous era.
When the Fed completely turns, the reliable faction takes over, and liquidity is reopened, that will be the true time of great wealth in the crypto space.
And the current declines, fluctuations, and repeated panics are all a reshuffling before getting rich.
Remember one thing:
A sharp decline is not the end; it is when chips flow from the fearful to the patient.
