#美联储重启降息步伐 【Bo talks about trading】 System defines direction, open position and set stop-loss
December 10 ETH midday analysis
1. Market Logic
It is expected that the market will surge towards the resistance levels of 3470 and 3550 in the early hours today, with the main logic as follows:
In the early hours, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut and will announce a QE bond buying plan of about 40 billion per month starting next month;
It is expected that the market will peak and retreat around 3:10, and Powell's hawkish speech at 3:30 may lead to a downturn in the market;
Macro risk indicators: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.182%, and the dollar against the yen rose to 156.61 (close to the November high of 157.90), both of which are negatively correlated with the cryptocurrency market, caution is needed for macro weakness risks.
In addition, last night at 23:00 ETH started to rise sharply, and at 23:42 a certain platform released a speech by “shadow” chairman Hassett: releasing the message that “the U.S. still has a large space for rate cuts,” pushing the price up to 3396. During this time, there was an abnormal volatility of about 42 minutes, and the efficiency of market information transmission is worth paying attention to, or there may be insider trading behavior; the world is truly a makeshift stage.
2. Technical Structure Analysis
From the daily structure observation, ETH is in a critical bull-bear boundary area:
Resistance area: Recent highs and the lower edge of the previous dense trading area constitute strong resistance, multiple attacks have not stabilized, reflecting significant selling pressure above;
Momentum structure: During the rebound, trading volume gradually shrinks, showing a divergence between volume and price, the sustainability of the rise is questionable;
Path simulation: Prices may make a “false breakout” near the current resistance area, quickly retreating after inducing bulls, thus confirming the short-term top structure and starting a volatile pullback.
3. Key Operational Signals
Bearish signal: If a long upper shadow or a bearish engulfing candlestick combination appears, along with increased volume, it can be seen as a weakening signal;
Important support: Pay attention to the trend support formed by connecting previous low points, if broken with increased volume, the pullback space may expand.
Risk Warning: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Market risks are high, and decisions should be made cautiously.#ETH走势分析 $BTC
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